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Mesoscale Discussion 1670
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1670
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0507 PM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MN / NWRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 032207Z - 032330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLD LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
   ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS CNTRL
   PORTIONS OF MN.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NWRN WI BY
   EARLY EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON IMPLIES A SUBTLE
   DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS E-CNTRL SD WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING
   TOWARDS THE SRN HALF OF MN THIS EVENING.  VISIBLE SATELLITE
   CONTINUES TO SHOW EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS BENEATH A STOUT CAP/ELEVATED
   MIXED LAYER AS STRONG H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AIDS IN ELEVATED
   STORM DEVELOPMENT N OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER SRN MN INTO CNTRL
   WI.  EARLIER DAY MODEL GUIDANCE WAS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BOTH HEATING
   AND MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE REGION.  DESPITE THE CONCERNS REGARDING
   THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS...THE STRONGER ELEVATED
   STORMS ACROSS CNTRL MN WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY OWING TO STEEPENING
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
   ROTATION/HAIL GROWTH.  THE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM REASONABLE
   IN ITS DEPICTION OF BOTH GRADUAL STORM STRENGTHENING AND STORMS
   MOVING EWD INTO NWRN WI EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
   WILL BE CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 09/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45519485 45689487 46059496 46409436 46319102 45879051
               45419049 45059089 45519485 

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Page last modified: September 03, 2014
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