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Mesoscale Discussion 1670
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1670
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0651 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 122351Z - 130045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
   INTO CNTRL MN AFTER 0030Z.

   DISCUSSION...A LONE SEVERE STORM REMAINS OVER NCNTRL MN MOVING SWD
   AT AROUND 40 KT. A TRAILING SKELETAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS NWWD
   FROM THE STORM INTO NWRN MN. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SWD
   ALONG THE GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY INTO CNTRL MN NEXT 1-2 HOURS
   SUPPORTED BY SWLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL
   GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH SWD EXTENT INTO MN DUE TO ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
   COOLING AS WELL AS EWD ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR ALOFT. MOREOVER...THE
   PRIMARY SWLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS NRN MN WITH WEAKER
   WINDS FARTHER SOUTH. THESE FACTORS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG AND
   HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PERSIST INTO CNTRL MN.
   NEVERTHELESS A SMALL WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TO COVER SHORT TERM
   THREAT.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 08/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

   LAT...LON   46179430 45939361 45139344 44989463 46239505 46179430 

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Page last modified: August 13, 2015
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