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Mesoscale Discussion 1671
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1671
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0525 PM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 032225Z - 040000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ND. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY ESPECIALLY ONCE CELL COVERAGE BEGINS TO INCREASE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 996 MB LOW OVER FAR SE
   MT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NWD ACROSS FAR ERN MT
   NEAR THE ND LINE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY HAVE BEEN
   STEADILY INCREASING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE
   IS NOW ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE BY RAP DATA AND IS
   FORECAST TO INCREASE MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE
   EXIT REGION OF A 50 TO 65 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN
   HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE LIFT
   AND MAINTAIN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE. REGIONAL
   WSR-88D VWPS CURRENTLY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 60 KT IN MUCH
   OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
   NEAR 8.5 C/KM EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL
   AND LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS EVENING. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SCATTERED STRONG
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE. THIS WILL ALSO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF WIND DAMAGE AS CELLS MATURE...MOVING EWD INTO INCREASING
   INSTABILITY.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW...

   LAT...LON   45900135 45730285 46180395 47610419 48770344 48940202
               48630092 47540061 46390089 45900135 

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Page last modified: September 04, 2014
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