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Mesoscale Discussion 1672
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1672
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MN / NWRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 040100Z - 040230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLD LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE LARGE HAIL THREAT
   BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT.

   DISCUSSION...0055Z RADAR ANALYSIS FROM KMPX AND WDSS-II 9 KM CAPPI
   AND MESH DATA SHOW THE LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL OVER ERN WASHBURN COUNTY
   WI MOVING EWD INTO SAWYER COUNTY WITH AN ATTENDANT 2 INCH DIAMETER
   OR LARGER HAIL THREAT.  UPSTREAM OF THE NWRN WI SUPERCELL IS AN
   ORGANIZED BAND OF HYBRID SUPERCELL/QLCS ROTATIONAL STRUCTURES.  ALL
   OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS TO THE N OF A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT
   GENERALLY 50-100 MI S OF THE ONGOING STORMS.  SURFACE TEMPS INVOF
   THE UPDRAFTS ARE HOVERING AROUND 70 DEG AND ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
   LARGE SBCINH /MODIFYING THE 04/00Z MPX RAOB/ AND THE ELEVATED
   CHARACTER OF THE STORMS.  DESPITE THE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
   CONCERNS FOR A SURFACE-BASED STORM THREAT...SOME POTENTIAL APPEARS
   TO STILL EXIST FOR PERHAPS AN ISOLD WIND DAMAGE RISK WITH THE
   EVOLVING CONVECTIVE BAND AS IT CONTINUES TO GROW UPSCALE.  THE MOST
   LIKELY AREAS OF SEVERE CONCERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE SUPERCELL AHEAD
   OF THE LINE AND A WIND/HAIL THREAT ON THE SRN PORTION OF THE
   CONVECTIVE BAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 09/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45709294 45939231 45779018 45258994 44559062 44649157
               45259304 45499304 45709294 

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Page last modified: September 04, 2014
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