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Mesoscale Discussion 1672
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1672
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MN...FAR NERN IA...MUCH OF CENTRAL
   WI...AND A SMALL PART OF THE MI UPPER PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 131924Z - 132130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA...WITH SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS
   WITH ANY SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
   TOWERING CUMULUS ALSO EVIDENT VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY.  DESPITE THESE
   OBSERVATIONS...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   STRENGTHEN/MATURE AND POSE A SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...AS
   LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK/NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA.  MODEL GUIDANCE/CAMS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
   OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00Z...ALTHOUGH WEAK CAPPING AND
   STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE INSTABILITY EVIDENT VIA OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSES AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL IF
   STORMS CAN MATURE.  SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF WIND WITH HEIGHT AND
   30-40 KNOT DEEP SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
   ROTATE...ENHANCING ANY LOCALIZED HAIL/WIND THREAT.

   ..COOK/MEAD.. 08/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45988755 45368941 44709153 44549236 44129252 43349216
               42909131 42799011 43388860 43858726 44598647 45768652
               46038716 45988755 

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Page last modified: August 13, 2015
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