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Mesoscale Discussion 1673
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1673
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0854 PM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...WRN AND CNTRL ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 490...

   VALID 040154Z - 040330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 490
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ONGOING ACROSS WW 490 WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS. THE THREAT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE
   CNTRL AND ERN PART OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS MARKEDLY INCREASED OVER THE
   LAST FEW HOURS ACROSS FAR NW ND WITH ONE PERSISTENTLY SEVERE CELL
   LOCATED IN WILLIAMS COUNTY ND. OTHER STRONG CELLS ARE LOCATED ALONG
   THE MT-ND STATELINE. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EWD ALONG A GRADIENT OF
   INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 500 TO 1000
   J/KG RANGE BY THE RAP. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z SOUNDING AT GLASGOW MT
   AND BISMARCK ND SHOW STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WHICH SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO FAVOR SEVERE STORM ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS
   WITH LARGE HAIL. THE LATEST HRRR MAINTAINS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
   DEVELOPS A SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENT. THIS LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
   TO NEAR MINOT ND BY 04Z. IF CELLS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A COLD POOL AS
   THE HRRR SUGGESTS IS POSSIBLE...THEN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD
   LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE CNTRL PART OF WW
   490.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   46610131 46600168 46690168 46680205 46590208 46630376
               46570377 46540402 46650399 46640430 46690458 46830462
               46830499 46920519 46970524 47160534 47740533 47790520
               48080521 48120549 48030576 48520577 48550499 49000504
               48990223 48989946 48399947 48379989 47849987 47839924
               47339925 47319944 46639943 46630061 46450060 46340095
               46340108 46330129 46610131 

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Page last modified: September 04, 2014
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