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Mesoscale Discussion 1673
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1673
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0245 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TO SWRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 131945Z - 132145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND RISK SHOULD DEVELOP...BUT
   WITHIN A CONFINED N/S-ORIENTED CORRIDOR. THIS RENDERS UNCERTAINTY
   REGARDING THE NEED FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...CU HAS BEGUN TO FORM NEAR A 1014 MB SURFACE CYCLONE
   INVOF CHERRY COUNTY SWD ALONG A LEE TROUGH NEAR THE CO/NEB/KS BORDER
   AREA. WHILE CAMS ARE VARIED IN TIMING OF TSTM INITIATION...FROM
   FASTER ESRL-HRRR TO SLOWER NAM-NEST...CONSENSUS /CLOSE TO WRF-NSSL/
   SUGGESTS THAT A STORM OR TWO SHOULD FORM BY 21Z. GIVEN PRESENCE OF
   UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WITHIN ABOUT A 50-MILE CORRIDOR
   ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND 90S SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG/BEHIND
   THE TROUGH...THIS TIMING SEEMS REASONABLE.

   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL BUT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
   IN DEPICTING INCREASED VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AS
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHIFT MORE NWLY. THIS MAY AID IN TRANSIENT
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OR A SMALL CLUSTER EVOLVING SWD BETWEEN 22-02Z.
   CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY DIMINISH AS NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER
   STABILIZATION ENSUES.

   ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 08/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   42190127 42570090 42680035 42669991 42419980 41649977
               40080071 40010117 39930166 40010197 40670188 41780148
               42190127 

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Page last modified: August 13, 2015
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