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Mesoscale Discussion 1675
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1675
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0117 AM CDT THU SEP 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 490...

   VALID 040617Z - 040745Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 490
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY EXTEND INTO NRN
   MN. A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH APPEARS LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL CURRENTLY EXIST ACROSS
   CNTRL ND IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
   JET...AND BENEATH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

   FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
   SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT FROM ND INTO MN...AND PERHAPS NERN SD. VERY
   STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS A ZONE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST
   UPSTREAM WILL FUEL SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MERGE INTO BOWS...POSSIBLY
   WITH CONTINUED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND DESPITE SOME CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HODOGRAPHS ARE QUITE LONG...AND
   SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.

   ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 09/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46950129 47660016 47799949 47829727 47579588 47209501
               46719488 46319494 45909550 45619631 45709702 46279885
               46429958 46950129 

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Page last modified: September 04, 2014
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