MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1677
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0526 PM CDT THU JUL 03 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 032226Z - 040030Z
   
   IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE HAIL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...A DAMAGING
   WIND THREAT MAY SPREAD INTO THE DESERT FLOOR OF SOUTHEAST/SOUTH
   CENTRAL AZ OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF
   THE RISK SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE TSTM WATCH...HOWEVER SHORT TERM
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY REFLECTS SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS
   CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE RIM/MOUNTAINS OF EAST
   CENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ IS
   VERY HOT/MOIST...WITH GPS DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
   1.15-1.40 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AZ DESERT FLOOR. ON THE
   PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...THE 12Z TUCSON OBSERVED RAOB AND MORE
   RECENT WSR-88D DERIVED WINDS IMPLY AS MUCH AS 20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY
   STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ...WITH WEAKER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
   FARTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL AZ CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN
   SOMEWHAT INCREASED WINDS ALOFT FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...FURTHER COLD
   POOL CONSOLIDATION/SUBSEQUENT SOUTHWESTWARD PROPAGATION MAY FAVOR A
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT REACHING THE DESERT FLOOR/I-10 CORRIDOR OVER
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/03/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
   
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