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Mesoscale Discussion 1678
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1678
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1025 AM CDT THU SEP 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL WI AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA
   OF MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494...

   VALID 041525Z - 041630Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS
   THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER TRACKS E/SE TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. A GRADUAL
   WEAKENING TREND SHOULD OCCUR WITH EASTWARD EXTENT NEAR THE LAKE.

   DISCUSSION...TWO CLUSTERS/BOWING SEGMENTS OVER NRN WI WILL CONTINUE
   TO TRACK E/SE TOWARD PORTIONS OF THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN AND LAKE
   MICHIGAN. WHILE THESE STORMS LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED...A FEW STRONG
   WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FAST STORM MOTION.
   OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. OVER THE LAST
   HOUR OR SO...THE WESTERN BOWING SEGMENT HAS BEGUN TO BUILD FURTHER
   TO THE S/SW...RESULTING IN THE ADDITION OF SEVERAL COUNTIES TO WATCH
   494. DEPENDING ON TRENDS...ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
   AS THIS PORTION OF THE LINE TRACKS ALONG GRADIENT OF HIGHER MLCAPE
   ACROSS THE NWS GREEN BAY CWA. WHILE INTENSITY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
   FOR A WHILE LONGER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE
   STORMS APPROACH/MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE WEAKER EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY RESIDE.

   ..LEITMAN.. 09/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   46228900 46138815 45578730 44958712 44118738 43928776
               43888822 44068916 44439026 44729076 45049109 45529084
               46019021 46168971 46228900 

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Page last modified: September 04, 2014
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