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Mesoscale Discussion 1678
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1678
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1202 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI...PORTIONS OF U.P. OF MI AND NRN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 141702Z - 141800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE EASTERN U.P.
   OF MI...SWWD INTO NRN WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  GUSTY WINDS AND
   SOME HAIL MAY BE NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IS NOTED ACROSS THE U.P.
   OF MI...SWWD INTO NRN WI WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
   80S.  LATEST OA DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUPPORTS THIS WITH SFC-3KM LAPSE
   RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM WITH MINIMAL CINH OBSERVED.  WHILE
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...LATEST VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS
   AN INCREASING/DEEPENING CU FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION AND UPDRAFTS ARE
   NOW PENETRATING LEVELS NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING OVER THE CNTRL/ERN
   U.P.  LATEST THINKING IS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED CU INTO NRN WI THEN DRIFT
   SEWD WITHIN MODESTLY SHEARED AND SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT AIR MASS. 
   HAIL SHOULD BE OBSERVED WITHIN THE MOST ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND GUSTY
   WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.  WILL MONITOR THIS
   REGION FOR POSSIBLE WW.

   ..DARROW/WEISS.. 08/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45929099 46078708 46288485 44858452 44248755 44889029
               45929099 

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Page last modified: August 14, 2015
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