MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1678
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1213 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/VT/NH/MA/CT/RI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 261713Z - 261915Z
   
   AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND ANTICIPATED SLOW INCREASE IN
   CONVECTION MAY NECESSITATE WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  
   
   SLOW DESTABILIZATION OF THE ERN NY/SRN AND WRN NEW ENGLAND AIRMASS
   IS INDICATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME HEATING OF THE MOIST
   BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS RESIDING ACROSS THIS REGION CONTINUES. 
   SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NERN
   NY/VT AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE ST. LAWRENCE AND OTTAWA VALLEYS OF
   SOUTHEAST CANADA...WHILE CU FIELD SLOWLY INCREASES FARTHER S/SE INTO
   SRN NEW ENGLAND.
   
   FURTHER DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH MODEST ASCENT -- ASSOCIATED
   WITH SMALL-SCALE CIRCULATION CENTERS ALOFT ROTATING AROUND THE
   LARGER-SCALE UPPER GREAT LAKES LOW AND A WEAK NW-SE SURFACE
   CONFLUENCE AXIS ACROSS ERN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND -- SUGGEST A CONTINUED
   INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS.  
   
   AS STORMS DEVELOP...BACKGROUND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING 30 TO
   40 KT SWLY FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE SHOULD SUPPORT
   ORGANIZATION/INTENSIFICATION...WITH A COMBINATION OF SMALL-SCALE
   LINES/CLUSTERS AND ISOLATED/POTENTIALLY-ROTATING STORMS EXPECTED. 
   LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY WITH ANY OF THE
   LINES/CLUSTERS...WITH MORE ISOLATED CELLS POSING MORE OF A HAIL
   THREAT.  IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE --
   PARTICULARLY WITH CELLS NEAR AND NE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
   TROUGH WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MORE BACKED/SSELY.
   
   ..GOSS.. 07/26/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...
   
   LAT...LON   44807192 45127305 44927471 43687499 41967365 41307251
               41387077 41707046 42207087 43417104 43977164 44807192