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Mesoscale Discussion 1679
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1679
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0130 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 141830Z - 142030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS
   CNTRL MT MAY POSE A RISK FOR A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS INTO THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION CONTINUES SPREADING ENEWD
   ACROSS CNTRL MT ON THE NRN RIM OF A LARGE WRN-CONUS ANTICYCLONE --
   AND WELL AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL PV MAX MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
   NW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INTO A
   HOT...WELL-MIXED...AND DEEP PBL THAT WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AROUND THE LWT-JDN-GGW AREAS
   HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND THE MIDDLE 90S TO 100F...SUPPORTING DEEP
   INVERTED-VEE PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH 1200-1700 J/KG OF DCAPE.
   ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS CONVECTION SPREADS
   ENEWD. HOWEVER...WITH THE TFX VWP SAMPLING AOB 20 KT OF FLOW IN THE
   LOWEST 6 KM AGL...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT IN THE
   SHORT-TERM...CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LACKING
   TO MARGINALIZE THE SVR RISK.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 08/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   46910977 47731016 48300914 48490737 48220638 47400637
               46900716 46740885 46910977 

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Page last modified: August 14, 2015
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