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Mesoscale Discussion 1680
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1680
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN NV...NWRN UT...SRN ID

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 141912Z - 142145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY
   CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS COUPLED WITH
   THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING ONSHORE ALONG
   THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL CONTINUE SUPPORTING AN UPSWING IN
   CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VIS IMAGERY AND CG-LIGHTNING
   DATA INDICATE CONVECTION/TSTMS ALREADY INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
   FALLS/ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR RELATED TO THE CYCLONE WILL RESIDE N
   OF THE REGION. REGARDLESS...THE PRESENCE OF 25-35 KT OF
   EFFECTIVE-BULK SHEAR PERIPHERAL TO THE CYCLONE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES AMIDST MARGINAL
   BUOYANCY. DEEP INVERTED-VEE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTING DCAPE
   AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG SUGGEST STRONG SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION WILL
   FACILITATE DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS.
   HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SVR RISK SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY THE LACK OF
   STRONGER DEEP ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 08/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...

   LAT...LON   40521462 41561559 42821551 43591447 43481271 42841209
               41421237 40621333 40521462 

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Page last modified: August 14, 2015
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