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Mesoscale Discussion 1681
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1681
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0119 PM CDT FRI SEP 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...S LOWER MICHIGAN...NW OHIO...N INDIANA...FAR NE
   ILLINOIS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 051819Z - 051945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
   STRONG...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT SOME
   HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
   DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS HAS RESULTED
   IN ERODING EARLY INHIBITION AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
   70S...STRONG MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000 J/KG WAS NOTED IN 17Z
   MESOANALYSIS. FURTHERMORE...18Z RAOB FROM DTX CONFIRMS THAT LITTLE
   IF ANY INHIBITION REMAINS OVER THE REGION...AND CUMULUS WAS NOTED IN
   LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF A PRE-FRONTAL WIND
   SHIFT/CONVERGENCE ZONE. ALSO NOTED ON THE 18Z DTX RAOB WERE
   STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES NEAR 7-7.5 C PER KM/ AND 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 30 KT.
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT IS WEAK...BUT GIVEN
   DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND OTHER FAVORABLE PARAMETERS...AT LEAST SOME
   SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONE OR MORE BANDS/WAVES OF STORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...FIRST ALONG ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENT ZONES AND THEN
   FURTHER WEST ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ITSELF. STEEP LAPSE RATES
   COMBINED WITH PW VALUES AOA 1.75 INCHES WILL MAINLY SUPPORT A
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE
   FOR SOME STRONGER/BRIEFLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS...500 MB TEMPS NEAR -8 C
   SHOULD LIMIT LARGER HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT SOME NEAR-SEVERE HAIL COULD
   OCCUR IN STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR WATCH
   ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

   ..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 09/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

   LAT...LON   43558425 43828299 43698257 43178221 42548232 41498282
               41028383 40748564 40548747 40648824 41008865 41368867
               41748817 42388679 43558425 

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Page last modified: September 05, 2014
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