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Mesoscale Discussion 1681
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1681
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA...CENTRAL
   AND EASTERN IDAHO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 141935Z - 142200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN TSTM
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD NEWD/ENEWD
   THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR WIND GUSTS. A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...VIS IMAGERY INDICATES ABUNDANT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM
   THE SALMON RIVER MOUNTAINS TO THE BITTERROOT RANGE...WITH INITIAL CG
   LIGHTNING DETECTED NEAR THE SW-MT/ERN-ID BORDER. SCATTERED TSTMS
   WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM FROM THIS INCIPIENT CONVECTION IN THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING A PV MAX OVERSPREAD THE
   AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE AIR MASS CONTINUES
   TO DESTABILIZE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SFC HEATING...WITH MLCAPE
   AROUND 500-1500 J/KG EXTENDING NWD TO A SFC BOUNDARY INVOF THE
   HI-LINE OF N-CNTRL MT. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
   LITTLE...WHILE DEEP PBL CIRCULATIONS TO ITS S FACILITATE STRONG
   VERTICAL MIXING WITH LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS /LOCALLY
   EXCEEDING 40F/ AND SUBSTANTIAL DCAPE. ROBUST EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN
   DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SVR WIND GUSTS WITH TSTMS
   SPREADING NEWD/ENEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL
   COLD-POOL AMALGAMATION AND ARCING/SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS WILL
   EXIST GIVEN DEEP SHEAR STRENGTHENING TO 30-40 KT...ENCOURAGING
   LOCALIZED CORRIDORS OF GREATER SVR-WIND POTENTIAL.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 08/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

   LAT...LON   44381461 45921546 47791420 48441179 48571021 48320961
               47670968 45971046 44831145 44171310 44381461 

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Page last modified: August 14, 2015
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