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Mesoscale Discussion 1682
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1682
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0238 PM CDT FRI SEP 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MO AND IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 051938Z - 052045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH
   MID-AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CNTRL MO/IL...WITH AN
   ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN DMGG WIND GUST POTENTIAL POSSIBLE. TRENDS
   ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SWELLING CU FIELD
   ALONG A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH IS POSITIONED FROM 30 N JLN
   TO 20 W MMO AS OF 19Z. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WAS
   OCCURRING ACROSS SERN MO AND SRN IL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
   DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST A MOIST AIR MASS IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES
   ESTIMATED AT 3000-4000 J/KG. CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND CAMS OUTPUT
   SUGGEST FRONTAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS
   ACROSS CNTRL MO INTO CNTRL IL. 

   AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT IS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED BY RATHER MODEST
   DEEP-LAYER FLOW /E.G. 10-20 KT AT 500 MB/...AS THIS REGION IS
   POSITIONED ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL WLYS.
   ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY
   STRONG WITH VEERED PRE-FRONTAL WLYS. WITH GENERALLY WEAK FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ALOFT...THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL MAY BE
   LIMITED. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
   PRESENT...ISOLATED STRONG TO DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
   MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALIZED
   STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PRE-FRONTAL PULSE
   CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
   INCREASING DMGG WIND POTENTIAL...IN WHICH CASE A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

   ..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 09/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...

   LAT...LON   38618772 37588908 37109030 36919144 37089227 38269292
               38919233 39539184 39979104 40509001 40718951 40608882
               40368848 40248766 39768705 38618772 

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Page last modified: September 05, 2014
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