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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1682
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT FRI JUL 04 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 042055Z - 042330Z
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTH CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL AZ OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS /AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/ SPREADING
INTO THE DESERT FLOOR/I-10 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHERN AZ BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT
DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
TSTMS /SOME ALREADY STRONG/ CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE MOGOLLON
RIM VICINITY/MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL AZ THIS
AFTERNOON...SEEMINGLY A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
THIS IS LIKELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SINCE
YESTERDAY...WITH GPS-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOW AS HIGH
AS 1.2-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...THE STRONGEST TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE
HAIL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN A SLIGHT
REORIENTATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AN
EASTERLY MID LEVEL WIND COMPONENT IS MORE PREVALENT AS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 25 KT AROUND 3-4 KM PER
12Z PHOENIX/TUCSON RAOBS AND MORE RECENT WSR-88D DERIVED DATA. AS
SUCH...MODERATELY STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW AND
CONGLOMERATING COLD POOLS WILL LIKELY FAVOR A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
PROPAGATION OF STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL
ONTO THE SOUTHERN AZ DESERT FLOOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
..GUYER.. 07/04/2008
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
35321287 35261105 33510946 31721130 33491307
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