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Mesoscale Discussion 1682
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1682
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI TO CNTRL LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 142009Z - 142115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS FROM NRN PORTIONS OF WI INTO CNTRL LOWER MI. 
   HAIL/WIND ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED ALONG AN
   ARCING CORRIDOR FROM NRN LOWER MI INTO NRN WI.  THIS ACTIVITY
   DEVELOPED WITHIN A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR ROBUST
   UPDRAFTS WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL TSTMS.
   18Z SOUNDING FROM APX SAMPLED PRE-THUNDERSTORM AIR MASS WELL WITH
   MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG AND SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES NEAR 9
   C/KM.   AS A RESULT...HAIL HAS BEEN NOTED AT TIMES WITH THE
   STRONGEST CONVECTION BUT INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS ARE STRUGGLING TO
   ORGANIZE.  INDIVIDUAL LIFE CYCLE APPEARS TO BE INHIBITED BY WEAK
   FORCING/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION
   CURRENT THINKING IS A WW WILL NOT BE WARRANTED ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
   SEVERE IS POSSIBLE.

   ..DARROW/WEISS.. 08/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...
   MPX...

   LAT...LON   45729148 44879055 43728805 42918538 43478324 44938351
               44648533 45338764 45999083 45729148 

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Page last modified: August 14, 2015
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