MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1682
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0355 PM CDT FRI JUL 04 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 042055Z - 042330Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   NORTH CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL AZ OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS /AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/ SPREADING
   INTO THE DESERT FLOOR/I-10 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHERN AZ BY LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT
   DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   TSTMS /SOME ALREADY STRONG/ CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE MOGOLLON
   RIM VICINITY/MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL AZ THIS
   AFTERNOON...SEEMINGLY A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
   THIS IS LIKELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SINCE
   YESTERDAY...WITH GPS-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOW AS HIGH
   AS 1.2-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
   MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...THE STRONGEST TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE
   HAIL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN A SLIGHT
   REORIENTATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AN
   EASTERLY MID LEVEL WIND COMPONENT IS MORE PREVALENT AS COMPARED TO
   PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 25 KT AROUND 3-4 KM PER
   12Z PHOENIX/TUCSON RAOBS AND MORE RECENT WSR-88D DERIVED DATA. AS
   SUCH...MODERATELY STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW AND
   CONGLOMERATING COLD POOLS WILL LIKELY FAVOR A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
   PROPAGATION OF STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL
   ONTO THE SOUTHERN AZ DESERT FLOOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/04/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
   
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