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Mesoscale Discussion 1683
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1683
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0511 PM CDT FRI SEP 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MO...IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496...

   VALID 052211Z - 052345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS WW 496 OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
   THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD
   ACROSS WRN IL...CNTRL MO INTO SE KS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC WINDS
   ARE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
   70S F AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S F. THIS HAS RESULTED
   IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN AREAS AHEAD
   OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. ALTHOUGH
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS GREATEST RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...THE SPRINGFIELD
   MO AND LINCOLN IL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 25 TO 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
   ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SEVERE
   THREAT ACROSS THE WATCH FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS MAINLY DUE TO THE
   STRONG INSTABILITY. LINEAR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WIND DAMAGE
   AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...A HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH THE
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHERE CELLS HAVE ACCESS TO THE STRONGEST
   INSTABILITY.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   37589180 37569222 37469223 37499308 37409308 37429361
               37799360 37949352 38499351 38529304 38689306 38679258
               38929248 38979254 39229244 39219230 39579232 39659216
               39669182 39949180 39949139 40189148 40199098 40299090
               40279039 40579043 40659008 40998995 40948905 40938899
               40958908 40908891 40758891 40798857 40638855 40598843
               40438844 40468792 40528791 40508750 39878755 39888788
               39398795 39388837 39238843 39198877 38808883 38798918
               38488919 38428969 38248970 38239002 38039017 38039046
               38079068 37769072 37719143 37789166 37789178 37589180 

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Page last modified: September 05, 2014
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