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Mesoscale Discussion 1683
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1683
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0319 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2017

   Areas affected...Southwest KS Vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 022019Z - 022215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A conditional risk for a couple supercells exists across
   southwest KS. Uncertainty remains over whether convection will
   become sustained, but watch issuance is possible by 22Z.

   DISCUSSION...Initial cumulus development has occurred along the
   dryline across the northwest portion of the TX Panhandle into Baca
   county CO. The air mass a county or two downstream of this
   development remains capped with north/south-oriented cloud streets
   evident in visible imagery. HRRR-NCEP and HRRR-ESRL have trended
   more aggressive in timing and number of storms, with initiation into
   southwest KS between 21-22Z. A moderately unstable air mass
   characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg amid 40-50 kt effective
   shear and increasingly enlarged low-level hodographs during the
   evening will support supercells capable of all hazards. With minimal
   large-scale ascent outside of isentropic lift atop the
   quasi-stationary front oscillating back north, this setup could
   favor a couple discrete supercells evolving northeast along and just
   south of the front. However, uncertainty exists in whether
   convergence along the dryline will be sufficient to sustain storms.

   ..Grams/Guyer.. 10/02/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37200058 36780143 36740183 36950210 37250214 37780186
               38150153 38870035 39259980 39189940 38199984 37540032

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