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Mesoscale Discussion 1684
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1684
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0143 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL WI TO NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IL
   AND NORTHWEST INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 151843Z - 152045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL WI INTO
   NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. A FEW INSTANCES OF
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SUB-SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED
   ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL WI/FAR NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON...INITIALLY IN THE GENERAL VICINITY /WITHIN 25 MILES/ OF
   I-90. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS TIED TO A CORRIDOR OF WEAK
   CONFLUENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING RELATED TO A PRIOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   FROM LATE LAST EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AS ADDITIONAL
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ADDITIONAL
   PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IL AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST
   INDIANA. SIMILAR TO CONTEMPORARY MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z OBSERVED
   LINCOLN IL SOUNDING...LATEST SPC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS YIELDING
   UPWARDS OF 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. AMPLE
   CAPE/STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER
   DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
   MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR/WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
   PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE HAIL...A FEW PULSE-TYPE INSTANCES
   OF SMALL/SUB-SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR.

   ..GUYER/WEISS.. 08/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   43008959 43038863 41698790 41118692 40358685 40218772
               40878907 42408972 43008959 

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Page last modified: August 15, 2015
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