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Mesoscale Discussion 1685
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1685
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...DAKOTAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 152038Z - 152145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED FOR PORTIONS OF
   THE DAKOTAS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF EARLY-DAY CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED
   INTO ERN ND AND WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS
   CLOUDINESS BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING HAS MAXIMIZED OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS
   WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE RISING THROUGH THE MID 90S ALONG/WEST OF
   WIND SHIFT.  LATEST VIS IMAGERY DOES NOT DEPICT ANY OBVIOUS DEEP
   THERMALS ALONG THE WIND SHIFT AT 2030Z BUT NEAR-SFC BASED CU FIELD
   MAY BE FORMING OVER BURLEIGH COUNTY ND.  WHILE HRRR GUIDANCE HAS
   BEEN A BIT AGGRESSIVE IN FORMING TSTMS ALONG THE WIND SHIFT...LATEST
   THINKING IS CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM
   SRN MB...SWD ACROSS ND INTO NCNTRL SD.  ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
   FAVORABLE FOR HAIL/WIND.

   ..DARROW/WEISS.. 08/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45500074 47540032 49049952 48709736 45769859 45500074 

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Page last modified: August 15, 2015
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