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Mesoscale Discussion 1685
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1685
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0722 PM CDT FRI SEP 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...NWRN OH...NRN IND...FAR NERN
   IL...WRN LK ERIE...SRN LK HURON

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495...

   VALID 060022Z - 060115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...PRIMARY SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL BE ACROSS SERN MI UNTIL
   NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER 01Z. A LINGERING RISK WILL ALSO EXIST FURTHER
   TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT...BUT THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED
   TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL. NO ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...AT 0015Z...AN MCS WITH A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WIND IS
   MOVING THROUGH FAR SERN LOWER MICHIGAN...INCLUDING THE DETROIT
   AREA...WITH A 52 KT WIND GUST RECENTLY OBSERVED AT DTW. THE DAMAGING
   WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT CLEARS THE STATE
   AND PROGRESSES INTO ONTARIO...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR BY 01Z. 

   FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG A
   COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SWRN LOWER MI INTO FAR ERN IL. THESE
   STORMS HAVE LARGELY BEEN SUBSEVERE THUS FAR...AND A GRADUAL
   WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER
   SHEAR ACROSS IL/IND AND WEAKER INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS
   ACROSS SRN MI. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NRN IND WHERE FRONTAL
   CONVECTION IS MERGING WITH ONGOING PREFRONTAL STORMS...BUT ANY
   UPTICK IN THIS AREA WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED. WHILE CONVECTION
   WILL LINGER BEYOND THE 01Z EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 495...AT THIS TIME
   THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A NEW
   WATCH OR WATCH EXTENSION.

   ..DEAN.. 09/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   40288794 41038705 41638625 42408460 42778401 43198324
               43468274 43098229 42518224 41928239 41568252 41108338
               40868463 40288794 

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Page last modified: September 06, 2014
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