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Mesoscale Discussion 1686
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1686
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 PM CDT FRI SEP 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...SRN IL...CNTRL IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496...

   VALID 060052Z - 060215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
   HOURS BUT SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY THREATS AS A LINE MOVES EWD OUT OF WW 496. WW ISSUANCE
   SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RAP DATA ANALYZES A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY FROM SRN IL NEWD ACROSS CNTRL IND WITH A COLD FRONT AND
   LINEAR MCS PRESENT ON THE WRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN
   ADDITION..THE LINCOLN IL 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
   BUT SHEAR WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT IN THE LOWER
   OH VALLEY. AS THE LINE MOVES EWD INTO THE WEAKLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT...INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AT THE SAME TIME. THIS
   SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE LINE. STRONG WIND GUSTS
   AND HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME
   MORE MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   40408732 39368907 38169062 37469064 37018945 38078800
               39858490 40778553 40408732 

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Page last modified: September 06, 2014
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