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Mesoscale Discussion 1686
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1686
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0641 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NERN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 152341Z - 160115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
   ACROSS CNTRL SD. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING COVERAGE AND
   SUSTENANCE OF ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THIS REGION.
   THEREFORE...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND ADDITIONAL DATA
   EVALUATED BEFORE ANY FINAL DECISION IS MADE REGARDING WW PROPOSAL.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA SHOW CUMULUS
   INCREASING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL SD. WARM
   AIR ALOFT AT EML BASE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A CAPPING INVERSION...BUT
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED WITHIN DEEP MIXING ZONE AND
   CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
   DEVELOP IN THIS REGION BY 01Z...AND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THEM TO
   CONTINUE EWD INTO AXIS OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGER
   INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
   DUE TO STRONGER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH EWD EXTENT INTO SD THAT
   WILL BE REINFORCED WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...THE
   POTENTIAL CAPPING ISSUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY A STRENGTHENING
   SLY LLJ THAT WILL AUGMENT MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG ANY DEVELOPING
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLY HELP TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS INTO
   MUCH OF THE EVENING. GIVEN THESE COMPETING FACTORS...ANY WW ISSUANCE
   WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS EVENING.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 08/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   43899966 44929936 45759874 45749714 44649750 43679862
               43899966 

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Page last modified: August 16, 2015
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