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Mesoscale Discussion 1687
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1687
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0701 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN NEB INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 160001Z - 160130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
   EVENING HOURS FROM WESTERN NEB INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SD. THE LACK OF A
   MORE ORGANIZED THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
   SURFACE WIND SHIFT FROM WESTERN NEB INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SD. WHILE THE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS...WEAK
   DEEP-LAYER FLOW/EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION.
   REGARDLESS...LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS RESULTING IN DCAPE
   WELL OVER 1500 J/KG AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT
   SPORADIC INSTANCES OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER
   SHEAR AND WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AND THE
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL.

   ..LEITMAN/EDWARDS.. 08/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   44159845 43139854 42709893 42249945 41330146 41240219
               41320282 41930310 42270279 42670230 43430084 43890026
               44339980 44339895 44159845 

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Page last modified: August 16, 2015
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