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Mesoscale Discussion 1687
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1687
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0916 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2017

   Areas affected...northwest KS

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 492...

   Valid 030216Z - 030345Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 492 continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop across
   northwest KS, with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the
   primary threats. The tornado potential is beginning to decrease,
   however a tornado watch remains in effect.

   DISCUSSION...Training thunderstorms with embedded supercell
   structures continue across the region. Surface temperatures are
   beginning to diurnally cool, thus resulting in decreasing MLCAPE
   values of 1000-1500 J/kg. However, low-level shear continues to
   increase with the strengthening low-level jet. The Dodge City VWP
   shows 0-1 km AGL shear just above 30 kt, with 55 kt of southerly
   flow at 1 km AGL and a sickle-shaped hodograph. Although large hail
   and damaging winds appear to be the primary threats for the
   remainder of time until watch expiration, the tornado potential
   still exists for any storm that can access surface-based parcels.

   ..Karstens.. 10/03/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38160142 38550150 38970115 39890016 39979937 39859875
               39119913 38090000 38010052 38070108 38160142 

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