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Mesoscale Discussion 1688
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1688
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0612 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2017

   Areas affected...east-central NM

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032312Z - 040015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening,
   posing a threat for hail and strong localized winds. However, watch
   issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Satellite observations show developing cumulus along a
   northeast-oriented surface boundary and triple point located in
   Guadalupe County, NM. Here, strong moisture convergence is
   occurring, with surface dew points in the mid 60s south of the
   boundary. Should storms form in this area, MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
   and effective bulk shear of 45-50 kt should support supercell
   thunderstorms capable of producing hail and localized strong winds.

   Farther west, diurnal heating and upslope flow along the Sacramento
   Mountains is helping to initiate thunderstorms. Here, MLCAPE of
   500-1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 45-50 kt should be
   conducive for supercells, especially if storms can move off the high
   terrain into the richer axis of moisture displaced about a county to
   the east. However, storms in the region are expected to remain
   isolated, precluding the need for a watch at this time.

   ..Karstens/Thompson.. 10/03/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32980544 33350577 34030589 34880578 35270541 35400505
               35380441 35260367 34770345 34020350 33470378 33060473

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