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Mesoscale Discussion 1688
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1688
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0926 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND THROUGH NWRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 489...

   VALID 160226Z - 160400Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 489
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS ERN ND INTO
   NWRN MN THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF DAMAGING
   WIND AND HAIL WILL PERSIST THROUGH 05-06Z.

   DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM REMAINS OVER SERN ND AND IS
   MOVING ESEWD AT 20-25 KT. THE STORM IS MOVING THROUGH INSTABILITY
   AXIS AND IS PROBABLY NEAR PEAK INTENSITY. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR NEW
   UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING ON THE SRN FLANK TO MERGE WITH PRE-EXISTING
   STORM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS SUPPORTED
   BY A 40 KT SLY LLJ. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING
   INCREASINGLY HOSTILE TO SURFACE-BASED STORMS AS CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION INCREASES DUE TO ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THIS
   SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING. OTHER
   STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NWRN MN...BUT THIS
   ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED AND MIGHT REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
   LEVELS.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 08/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46099899 48609750 48629554 46289661 46099899 

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Page last modified: August 16, 2015
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