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Mesoscale Discussion 1689
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1689
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1113 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN ND INTO NWRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 489...

   VALID 160413Z - 160515Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 489
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE STRONG STORM CLUSTER ENTERING NWRN MN MAY CONTINUE TO
   POSE AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND.
   ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER NWRN
   MN...BUT ANY FUTURE SEVERE EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY
   SPARSE...AND ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CROSSING INTO
   NWRN MN AND HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT EAST OF AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY.
   ADDITIONAL STORMS /MOST LIKELY ELEVATED/ ARE ALSO DEVELOPING WITHIN
   THE WARM-ADVECTION REGIME OVER NWRN MN. THE ONGOING AND FUTURE
   DEVELOPMENT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A 40 KT SLY LLJ. HOWEVER...THE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT /INCLUDING A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER/
   IS BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH TIME. THOUGH A FEW
   INSTANCES OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE...THE OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER
   WW.

   ..DIAL.. 08/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

   LAT...LON   46139774 48789563 48099405 45729532 46139774 

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Page last modified: August 16, 2015
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