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Mesoscale Discussion 1690
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1690
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0108 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN WY...NERN CO...A SMALL PART OF THE
   NEB PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 161808Z - 162045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR-TSTM
   POTENTIAL...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WW WOULD BE NEEDED AT SOME
   POINT THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...CAPPI DATA AT 7 AND 9 KM INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY AT THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT WITHIN
   THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX TRAVERSING PARTS OF THE
   CNTRL GREAT BASIN INTO WY. THE SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE TO EMERGE
   OVER A LOW-LEVEL MOIST/UPSLOPE-FLOW REGIME ANALYZED ACROSS ADJACENT
   HIGH PLAINS...WHERE ABUNDANT INSOLATION IS SUPPORTING
   DESTABILIZATION AMIDST LOWER/MIDDLE 50S DEWPOINTS. AS SUCH...ONGOING
   TSTMS OVER S-CNTRL WY INTO ADJACENT FAR NRN CO MAY INTENSIFY WHILE
   SPREADING EWD/SEWD...WHILE DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
   CIRCULATIONS ENCOURAGE NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE
   TO THE CO FRONT RANGE. VIS IMAGERY ALREADY INDICATES INCIPIENT
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AWAY FROM
   AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING CONVECTION.

   ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD TOWARD AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT HIGH
   PLAINS...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR FROM CHEYENNE
   TO FORT COLLINS TO DENVER/BOULDER TO COLORADO SPRINGS BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON. THE 12Z DENVER/BOULDER RAOB SAMPLED STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE
   RATES -- AROUND 8 C/KM -- THAT WILL BOLSTER UPWARD CONVECTIVE
   ACCELERATION/NORMALIZED CAPE. SVR HAIL/WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A TORNADO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE BACKED/ELY SFC WINDS ENHANCE STREAMWISE
   VORTICITY. THIS WOULD BE THE CASE NEAR/N OF A SLOW-MOVING/STATIONARY
   BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM SW NEB TO AN EVOLVING SFC CYCLONE BETWEEN
   DENVER AND COLORADO SPRINGS -- WITH SUCH POTENTIAL MAXIMIZED IN SERN
   WY/VICINITY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MID-LEVEL WIND-SPEED MAXIMUM.
   HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO RISK.

   ULTIMATELY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND OVERALL
   SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE SVR RISK. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SFC WINDS
   HOLDING A SMALL NLY COMPONENT -- IMPLYING POTENTIAL RESIDUAL MLCINH
   BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE SVR
   RISK OVER THE HIGH PLAINS PRIOR TO STRONGER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.
   FURTHERMORE...THE WELL-NWD DISPLACEMENT OF MORE APPRECIABLE DEEP
   SHEAR FROM STRONGER BUOYANCY MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO
   SOME EXTENT. AS SUCH...CONVECTIVE/ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT IMMINENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 08/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40040609 41210624 41830578 41950438 41280334 39780273
               38880332 38680468 39100541 40040609 

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