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Mesoscale Discussion 1690
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1690
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 PM CDT Thu Oct 05 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of central and northern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051836Z - 052100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage the next few hours
   with a risk for severe hail and brief severe wind gusts, but a watch
   is not anticipated because of the isolated nature of the threat.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating is contributing to the development of
   towering cumulus and scattered thunderstorms over the mountains of
   western and central New Mexico.  Although lapse rates greater than 6
   C/km should stay north of the region -- thereby limiting the
   magnitude of the overall severe threat -- a very moist air mass and
   steepening low-level lapse rates will contribute to midday MLCAPE
   values in the 500-1500 J/kg range.  Similar to yesterday, a few
   organized storms, including supercells, are expected to emerge by
   19-20z from the cluster of cumulus developing to the west of a line
   from Albuquerque to Socorro on the southern fringes of stronger
   mid-level flow where effective shear values are again in the 35-50
   kt range.  Severe hail will be possible with these storms, along
   with brief severe wind gusts given the indication of a ~100-mb-deep
   well-mixed boundary layer in model soundings prior to arrival of the
   convection, which is supported by current temperatures in the
   mid-upper 70s in the Rio Grande Valley.

   Farther east, a few thunderstorms should also develop over the
   southern Sangre De Cristo mountains and move eastward, and will also
   pose a threat for severe hail and brief severe wind gusts, but
   weakening flow/deep-layer shear east of this area should limit the
   duration of this threat.  Overall, the coverage of the severe threat
   should again be isolated enough to prevent the issuance of a watch.

   ..Coniglio/Guyer.. 10/05/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34260850 34940867 35420864 35940822 36190761 36410635
               36430569 36440512 36510441 36520380 36330342 36040328
               35690334 35080429 34760496 34350569 33920632 33650667
               33590690 33500726 33470752 33740808 34260850 

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