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Mesoscale Discussion 1691
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1691
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0242 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NEB...NWRN KS...FAR ERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 161942Z - 162145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR A FEW SVR TSTMS WILL EXIST THIS
   AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AS SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD
   REMAIN TOO ISOLATED AND MARGINAL.

   DISCUSSION...BAROCLINICITY INVOF A WAVY...QUASI-STATIONARY SFC FRONT
   ANALYZED FROM SSE OF YANKTON SD TO NEAR MCCOOK NEB TO NW OF GOODLAND
   KS IS BEING ENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE FRINGES OF
   CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS PRIMARY RELEGATED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE
   BOUNDARY. RELATED ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN INCREASE IN
   CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
   DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY -- WHERE
   TEMPS HAVE LOCALLY REACHED THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION ARE MODEST...AND VWPS SUGGEST A
   DEARTH OF MID-LEVEL FLOW/DEEP SHEAR. THESE FACTORS SHOULD GREATLY
   MARGINALIZE ANY SVR RISK. HOWEVER...A FEW MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS
   MAY OCCUR AS CELLS COLLAPSE -- AIDED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AND WATER-LOADING PROCESSES.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 08/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39670213 40960006 41869785 41319740 39989916 39040174
               39670213 

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Page last modified: August 16, 2015
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