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Mesoscale Discussion 1691
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1691
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 PM CDT SUN SEP 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SD...NE...CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 072057Z - 072230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD
   PRODUCE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
   REMAIN ISOLATED AND WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE OVER PORTIONS OF
   NORTHEAST CO NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEB AND SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH THIS
   EVENING. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER
   WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE STRENGTHENING OF
   LEE/THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
   MEANWHILE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WEAK
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAVE LIKELY AIDED HIGH-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
   WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER WY/CO. DEEPER MIXING IS NOW EVIDENT IN
   OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE AND
   EXTREME SOUTHWEST SD. IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MIXING...IN
   CONCERT WITH SUBTLE BACKGROUND HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EAST THROUGH
   THIS EVENING...MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED STORM INITIATION NEAR AND EAST
   OF THE LEE-TROUGH WHERE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS BOOSTED LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE AND RESULTANT MLCAPE. GIVEN EXPECTED MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY
   AND 30-40KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...A FEW BETTER ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT
   STORMS SEEM POSSIBLE. A THREAT OF SOME SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG
   DOWNBURSTS MAY UNFOLD IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY
   EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...OVERALL STORM COVERAGE MAY BE TEMPERED BY
   LACK OF STRONGER FORCING AND LIMITED AREAL EXTENT OF AVAILABLE
   INSTABILITY.

   ..CARBIN/CORFIDI.. 09/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41470153 41060194 40800281 41330328 41490312 43060259
               43580305 43910364 44380390 44940388 45180307 45210259
               45130160 44690117 44100071 43300080 41470153 

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Page last modified: September 07, 2014
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