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Mesoscale Discussion 1692
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1692
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0353 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 162053Z - 162300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF ERN CO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
   WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A QUASI-STATIONARY
   BOUNDARY ARCING FROM SWRN NEB TO BETWEEN GOODLAND KS AND BURLINGTON
   CO TO NEAR LIMON CO TO A CYCLONE ANALYZED NEAR THE DENVER AREA. THE
   AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY
   OWING TO DIURNAL DIABATIC SFC HEATING AMIDST MOIST/LIGHT-UPSLOPE
   FLOW CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THIS MOISTURE...COUPLED
   WITH STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND
   500-1500 J/KG. ASCENT OFFERED BY A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX GLANCING THE
   REGION AND OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS CONTINUE ENHANCING TSTM ACTIVITY
   FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES TO THE FRONT RANGE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
   ADVANCE TOWARD/ACROSS THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING THE URBAN
   CORRIDOR INVOF I-25 -- INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
   GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...ROBUST CONVECTIVE CORES CAPABLE OF SVR
   HAIL/WIND MAY ENSUE. A TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT GIVEN
   THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE FTG VWP -- PARTICULARLY WHERE
   STRETCHING PROCESSES AMPLIFY AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY INVOF THE
   DENVER CONVERGENCE-VORTICITY ZONE. HOWEVER...SUCH RISK WILL BE
   LIMITED BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR MAGNITUDES.

   WHILE A FEW INSTANCES OF SVR WIND/HAIL WILL BE ENTIRELY POSSIBLE AS
   CONVECTION SPREADS EWD/SEWD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...VWPS
   SUGGEST THAT DEEP SHEAR IS MODEST -- GENERALLY BELOW 30 KT. THIS
   CASTS CONSIDERABLE DOUBT ON OVERALL PROSPECTS FOR
   ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SVR CONVECTION. THE LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY
   MAY ALSO MITIGATE THE OVERALL SVR RISK. FURTHERMORE...
   LARGE-SCALE/DEEP ASCENT IS RELATIVELY LIMITED...WHICH COULD LIMIT
   THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SVR POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...WITH ASCENT
   OFFERED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TERRAIN/FRONT/CYCLONE/SPEED MAX AND
   OPPORTUNITIES FOR LOCAL COLD-POOL AMALGAMATION TO BOLSTER THE
   SVR-WIND POTENTIAL...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 08/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39010510 40370540 40830477 40770306 39690231 38730237
               38340321 38470429 39010510 

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Page last modified: August 16, 2015
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