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Mesoscale Discussion 1693
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1693
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...FAR SERN SD...NWRN IA...SRN MN...FAR WRN
   WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 162101Z - 162300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN
   ADVANCING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED
   GIVEN THE LIMITED MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS SERN
   SD INTO SWRN MN. THUS FAR...THIS ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY BEEN
   POST-FRONTAL AND DISORGANIZED...BUT MODEST DOWNSTREAM
   DESTABILIZATION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 2-3
   HRS...WITH A TENDENCY FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME ROOTED CLOSER TO THE
   SURFACE. THE STRONGEST FLOW IS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT...BUT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 25-30 KTS CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY WILL
   SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOOSELY ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS WITH AN
   ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. DUE TO THE LIMITED
   MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
   TIME.

   ..DEAN/WEISS.. 08/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41849730 42159763 42879750 44069553 45339397 45649344
               45699253 44649204 44159210 43469307 42769427 42269505
               41379654 41849730 

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Page last modified: August 16, 2015
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