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Mesoscale Discussion 1694
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1694
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0624 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...FAR WRN NEB PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 162324Z - 170130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY
   ACCOMPANY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT EVOLVES E OF THE LARAMIE MTNS
   THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR A SEVERE
   TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS SRN
   CONVERSE/NRN ALBANY AND ERN CARBON COUNTIES IN SERN WY SHOULD
   PERSIST EWD TOWARDS THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO MID-EVENING...SUPPORTED
   BY A COMBINATION OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND A FAVORABLY
   DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WITH JET STREAKS OVER THE UPPER
   MIDWEST AND CNTRL GREAT BASIN. WHILE BUOYANCY ALONG THIS PORTION OF
   THE HIGH PLAINS IS WEAK AMID LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SURFACE DEW
   POINTS...CYS VWP DATA SAMPLES SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...MERGING OF STORM-SCALE OUTFLOWS MAY
   MAINTAIN PREDOMINATELY CLUSTER MODE AND TEND TO LIMIT THE LONGEVITY
   OF ANY INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELL.

   ..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 08/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42760545 42960467 42940376 42820335 42590311 42090304
               41530323 41170383 41040456 41070517 41120566 41350614
               41680614 42300589 42610558 42760545 

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Page last modified: August 17, 2015
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