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Mesoscale Discussion 1694
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1694
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1213 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW IA....FAR N-CNTRL MO...FAR NE NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 091713Z - 091815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ARCING BAND OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO SWRN IA AND
   FAR N-CNTRL MO WITH SOME HAIL POSSIBLE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
   POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION...WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
   TIME...ALTHOUGH TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS
   EXTENDING FROM FET /IN FAR E-CNTRL NEB/ SEWD TO ICL /IN FAR SW IA/.
   THIS BAND HAS LIKELY DEVELOPED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT
   AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WAVE MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STAY ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF SW IA AS CLOUD
   COVER IMPEDES DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COUPLED
   WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT HAIL
   DEVELOPMENT...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE. 

   SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION...AND A RESULTANT GREATER SVR
   THREAT...APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS N-CNTRL MO WHERE SOME HEATING IS
   TAKING PLACE. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER REMAINS AN ISSUE AND CONFIDENCE
   IS LOW ON WHETHER OR NOT SURFACE-BASE CONVECTION INITIATION WILL BE
   REALIZED...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS. AS SUCH...A WW
   APPEARS UNLIKELY BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED
   CLOSELY.

   ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 09/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   40509319 40239344 40219434 40529500 40989566 41399617
               41869691 42119704 42349668 42279610 41889496 41749460
               41369396 40509319 

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Page last modified: September 09, 2014
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