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Mesoscale Discussion 1695
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1695
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1004 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS...FAR SERN CO...OK PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 170304Z - 170430Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND SHOULD DIMINISH
   OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS WITHIN
   A SEMI-ORGANIZED SWD-SINKING CLUSTER.

   DISCUSSION...MCS ALONG THE SERN CO/SWRN KS BORDER AREA HAS SLOWLY
   SUNK SWD THIS EVENING WITH AROUND 15-25 KT FORWARD PROPAGATION.
   AMALGAMATING STORM-SCALE OUTFLOWS SHOULD MERGE WITH A LINGERING
   HAIL-PRODUCING CELL IN BACA COUNTY CO DURING THE NEXT HOUR. WITH
   MINIMAL BUOYANCY SAMPLED IN 00Z DDC RAOB...ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO PUSH NEARLY DUE S ALONG A CONFINED PLUME OF WEAK BUOYANCY
   CHARACTERIZED BY LOW 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND MEAN MIXING RATIOS
   AROUND 12 G/KG IN 00Z AMA RAOB. DESPITE MODEST SPEEDS...LARGE
   VEERING WITH HEIGHT OF THE DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILE SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO FAVOR SEMI-ORGANIZED LINEAR STRUCTURE AND SHORT-TERM RISKS OF
   ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND. BUT FURTHER INCREASES IN BOUNDARY-LAYER
   STABILIZATION WILL LIKELY LEND TO THE DEMISE OF THE SHORT-LINE
   SEGMENT AS IT APPROACHES THE OK PANHANDLE.

   ..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 08/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   37990246 38190149 38420073 37780077 36770083 36570123
               36520171 36580199 36810223 37600255 37820257 37990246 

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Page last modified: August 17, 2015
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