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Mesoscale Discussion 1696
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1696
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0306 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS...SRN NEB...NWRN MO AND SWRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 092006Z - 092200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
   WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN NEB AND PERHAPS FAR NRN KS...THEN INTO SWRN IA
   AND NWRN MO. DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALL
   BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
   FAR NRN KS INTO SERN NEB AND SWRN IA...WITH STRONG HEATING AND
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OCCURRING UPSTREAM ACROSS KS WITH TEMPERATURES
   IN THE 90S. THE 18Z TOP SOUNDING CONFIRMED A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   WITH AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.

   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING CU FIELD NEAR THE HILL
   CITY KS AREA AND EXTENDING NEWD INTO FAR S CNTRL NEB. MEANWHILE...CU
   HAS DISSIPATED NEAR THE MHK/TOP AREA...WITH WARM MIXED AIR SURGING N
   WITH WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT APPEARING LESS LIKELY THERE.

   INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN HILL CITY AND HASTING NEAR
   THE SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZONE REINFORCED BY DAYTIME RAIN. HODOGRAPHS
   ALONG THE BOUNDARY HEAR HASTINGS EXHIBIT STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH VWPS TEND TO OVERDO THE WIND
   SPEEDS COMPARED TO THE NOW DEFUNCT WIND PROFILERS. NONETHELESS...THE
   ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS...AND A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH STORMS TRAVELING NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH TIME...A
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING COLD POOL IS LIKELY TO FORM WITH AN INCREASING
   THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 09/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   40589837 41159666 41329596 41349524 41239442 40939382
               40349343 39989351 39679367 39549408 39579493 39679555
               39699675 39659886 39819927 40069926 40309895 40589837 

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Page last modified: September 09, 2014
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