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Mesoscale Discussion 1696
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1696
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTHEAST CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 171906Z - 172130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE/DEVELOP
   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM AND EVENTUALLY
   SOUTHEAST CO THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NM IN GENERAL VICINITY OF THE SAN
   JUAN/SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. HEATING/OROGRAPHIC LIFT ASIDE...IT
   WOULD APPEAR THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT IS BEING AIDED BY AN
   EASTWARD-TRANSITIONING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
   WHILE INHIBITION STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE PLAINS PER
   VISIBLE/OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS...A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS AND
   ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO MODERATE BUOYANCY/NEGLIGIBLE CINH BY
   MID/LATE AFTERNOON...LIKELY ALLOWING STORMS TO DEVELOP/PERSIST ONTO
   THE PLAINS. AS MUCH AS 35-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF SEMI-ORGANIZED STORMS POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A COUPLE
   OF SUPERCELLS. SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK...BUT
   SEVERE-CALIBER WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON AS THE STORMS ENCOUNTER A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN NM/SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 08/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35530553 35970642 36530636 37620541 38390479 38290349
               36390306 35450362 35300450 35530553 

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Page last modified: August 17, 2015
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