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Mesoscale Discussion 1697
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1697
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...SW NEB...NW KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 092036Z - 092230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD
   OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NE CO. A FEW STRONG TO SVR
   STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE AND STORM STRENGTH
   CURRENTLY LEADS TO UNLIKELY WATCH PROBABILITIES BUT TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN BETTER CU
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN YUMA COUNTY CO.
   CURRENTLY...DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS STILL CAPPED WITH CLOUD COVER
   IMPEDING DESTABILIZATION THUS FAR. HOWEVER...SOME CLEARING HAS
   OCCURRED WITH AREA OBSERVATIONS REPORTING DECENT WARMING DURING THE
   LAST HOUR. ELY/NELY SURFACE WINDS ARE AIDING IN MOISTURE ADVECTION
   INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
   CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITH
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED. 

   GLD VAD PROFILE CONTAINS NO DATA ABOVE 2 KM...WHICH ELIMINATES A
   REAL-TIME HODOGRAPH IN THE AREA...BUT SPC MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES 0-6
   KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 40-45 KT AND POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
   LONG HODOGRAPH AND A WIND PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. AS A
   RESULT...A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING. MAIN SVR THREAT IS HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 09/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40330255 40850212 41370182 41560141 41610085 41390038
               40629995 39530016 39180117 39150244 39770314 40330255 

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Page last modified: September 09, 2014
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