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Mesoscale Discussion 1698
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1698
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0259 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO AND SOUTHEAST WY/FAR
   SOUTHWEST NEB/WESTERN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 171959Z - 172200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE
   INITIALLY ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE VICINITY OF
   EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST CO...WITH OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
   LATER ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED /ESPECIALLY
   PARTS OF CO/ BY MID-AFTERNOON FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE HAIL
   AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES/STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

   DISCUSSION...GRADUALLY INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT/CYCLONIC
   WESTERLIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OROGRAPHIC
   INFLUENCES SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
   UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT POTENTIALLY TIED TO INCREASING CONVECTION OVER
   NORTH-CENTRAL CO /ROUGHLY 50 MILES WNW OF DENVER/ AS OF 1930Z. SUCH
   DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE
   VICINITY/PALMER DIVIDE VICINITY...WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED
   NEAR/NORTH OF THE DIVIDE BETWEEN INTERSTATES I-70/I-76 NEAR AN
   EFFECTIVE FRONT/CORRIDOR OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. A DESTABILIZING
   BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR/EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE IN THE PRESENCE OF
   STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /40+ KT EFFECTIVE AS SUPPORTED BY
   KFTG WSR-88D VWP DATA/ WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   LARGE HAIL. FURTHERMORE...A MOIST AIR MASS /NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S F
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS/...LOW-LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PRESENCE
   OF A DENVER AREA CYCLONE ARE FACTORS FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY
   OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL LIKELY
   PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 08/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   38520422 38970481 40070519 42030498 41950403 41020371
               39830196 38800205 38480320 38520422 

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Page last modified: August 17, 2015
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