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Mesoscale Discussion 1698
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1698
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0502 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO THROUGH SWRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 092202Z - 092330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING FROM ERN MO THROUGH SWRN IL MAY POSE A
   RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
   BRIEF TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
   FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN AND ERN MO SEWD THROUGH
   SRN IL. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS INDICATED ADVANCING SWD THROUGH THE
   ST LOUIS AREA. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE TO
   BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES WITH
   2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE BUT MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STORMS WILL
   LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR AS WELL AS ALONG AND NORTH
   OF THE WARM FRONT. STORMS IN WARM SECTOR WILL INTERACT WITH THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WARM FRONT AS THEY MOVE NNEWD. THE STORMS MAY
   POSE AT LEAST A MODEST RISK FOR BRIEF TORNADOES AS THEY INTERACT
   WITH THESE BOUNDARIES BEFORE BECOMING ELEVATED AS THEY CROSS INTO
   THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHERWISE...VWP DATA SHOW THE VEERING
   LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 09/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...

   LAT...LON   39849192 38999044 38718977 38228979 38219070 38619140
               39349211 39849192 

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Page last modified: September 09, 2014
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