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Mesoscale Discussion 1699
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1699
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0508 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN/SOUTHERN NM AND OK/TX PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 172208Z - 180015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...VERY LOCALIZED SEVERE-CALIBER WIND GUSTS AND SOME SEVERE
   HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS A
   CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST NM AND THE WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES
   SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL NM.

   DISCUSSION...LARGER-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
   SOMEWHAT STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KT/ ARE CURRENTLY
   OVERSPREADING NORTHERN NM AND OTHER PARTS OF THE ADJACENT
   SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS TENDING TO CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHEAST NM AS OF 22Z. IT
   IS PLAUSIBLE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO ADJACENT
   WESTERN PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT
   THE MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT /2000+ J PER KG MLCAPE/. SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. 

   FARTHER SOUTHWEST...OTHER STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
   EARLY EVENING ACROSS ACROSS SOUTHERN NM. HOT/DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYERS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEVERE-CALIBER DOWNDRAFTS...WHILE HAIL
   POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR/WARMED
   MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES.

   ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 08/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   36010483 36950291 35260247 31800644 32500823 33170721
               35020578 36010483 

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Page last modified: August 18, 2015
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