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Mesoscale Discussion 1700
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1700
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0541 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN KS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 490...

   VALID 172241Z - 180015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 490 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
   WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL CO...WHILE AN
   INCREASING DAMAGING-WIND RISK CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS FAR
   EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN KS. TORNADO WATCH 490 CONTINUES UNTIL
   05Z...AND DOWNSTREAM PORTIONS OF WESTERN KS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN
   ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE EARLY THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SOME SEMI-DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ONTO THE HIGH
   PLAINS OF EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST CO AS 430 PM MDT/2230Z...ALTHOUGH
   THERE HAS BEEN A DISTINCT TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO MERGE/GROW UPSCALE
   OVER THE PAST HOUR. SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AND A
   DAMAGING-WIND RISK SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS A RELATIVELY
   BROAD PART OF EASTERN CO AND POTENTIALLY FAR WESTERN KS THROUGH
   EARLY EVENING. THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OR TWO WILL REMAIN
   MAINLY IN THE SHORTER TERM WITH ONGOING SUPERCELLS JUST EAST OF
   COLORADO SPRINGS/NEAR LIMON IN VICINITY OF SURFACE
   CYCLONE/BAROCLINIC GRADIENT...WHILE A TORNADO COULD ALSO OCCUR
   WITHIN A MORE COMPLEX CONVECTIVE MODE ACROSS NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL
   CO BETWEEN INTERSTATES 70/76. THIS WOULD BE IN VICINITY OF A
   WEST-EAST EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH ARE MAXIMIZED
   AS PER MODERATELY STRONG/CONFLUENT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND RECENT
   GOODLAND WSR-88D VWP DATA.

   ..GUYER.. 08/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   37630350 37690396 38050476 39040502 39700471 40360469
               40920483 40930428 40690350 40550261 40050145 39040130
               38070154 37740182 37640261 37630350 37630350 

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Page last modified: August 18, 2015
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