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Mesoscale Discussion 1701
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1701
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0617 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW NEB...NW KS...E-CNTRL CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500...

   VALID 092317Z - 100045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK MAY YET DEVELOP OVER THE
   SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF WW 500.

   DISCUSSION...23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 998 MB CYCLONE NEAR LAA
   WITH PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING NE TO HLC...WITH A SECONDARY
   COLD FRONT APPROACHING MCK TO ITR. STRONGEST STORM WITH A HISTORY OF
   MID-LEVEL ROTATION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR
   SW NEB /NOW CENTERED ON THE NEB-KS BORDER/. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
   RELATIVELY STRONG SPEED SHEAR FROM 3-7 KM AGL SAMPLED IN GLD/FTG VWP
   DATA. WITH PREDOMINATELY NLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE INITIAL
   FRONT...UPSLOPE FLOW IS WEAK. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A PROBABLE
   MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION
   MAY STRUGGLE TO ULTIMATELY INTENSIFY INTO SEVERE STORMS. 

   MOST LIKELY THE NRN PORTION OF THE WW COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY AS
   STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTS S INTO LATE EVENING.

   ..GRAMS.. 09/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40850093 40629941 39729921 38739930 38670086 38670251
               39130271 40080247 40850093 

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Page last modified: September 10, 2014
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