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Mesoscale Discussion 1701
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1701
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0716 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN WY...SOUTHWEST SD...NEB PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491...

   VALID 180016Z - 180145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN WYOMING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AND A
   DOWNSTREAM WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE IS
   NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN WY WILL
   CONTINUE TO POSE A STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS HAVE GENERALLY STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF
   CPR TO CYS DUE TO LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM WESTERN NEB WHERE A
   POORER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS EXISTS. CURRENTLY...THE GREATEST
   INSTABILITY AXIS /AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ RESIDES ROUGHLY ALONG THE
   I-25 CORRIDOR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INCREASING AS THE MAIN UPPER
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EJECT E/SE OVER SOUTHERN MT/NW WY.
   THIS SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO SUSTAIN ONGOING STORMS A WHILE LONG.
   HOWEVER...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION AND WEAKENING
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH EASTWARD EXTENT SHOULD LIMIT DOWNSTREAM SEVERE
   POTENTIAL INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND A
   NEW DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ..LEITMAN.. 08/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   45210382 44280278 42320248 41060262 40970586 41140629
               41970694 42750732 44140815 44640819 44960800 45140768
               45290527 45210382 

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Page last modified: August 18, 2015
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