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Mesoscale Discussion 1702
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1702
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0645 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL THROUGH SERN NEB...NERN KS...SRN IA AND NRN
   MO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 499...

   VALID 092345Z - 100115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 499 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
   SRN HALF OF WW 499 INCLUDING SERN NEB...NERN KS...SRN IA AND NRN MO.
   SEVERE RISK SHOULD SPREAD EWD THROUGH NRN MO WHERE THE TORNADO WATCH
   WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN
   ZONE OF ASCENT NORTH OF A WARM FRONT FROM SRN NEB...EXTREME NRN KS
   INTO NWRN MO AND SWRN IA. MIXED STORM MODES ARE EVIDENT INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE ATMOSPHERE
   REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AND
   STORMS WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING SSWLY LLJ. SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   REMAIN LIKELY WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
   HOWEVER...STORMS MAY BEGIN TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS WITH AN
   INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

   FARTHER NORTH...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MORE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN
   PORTION OF WW 499 INCLUDING ECNTRL NEB INTO WCNTRL IA WHERE STORMS
   ARE LIKELY ELEVATED WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE TORNADO WATCH
   MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY IN THIS REGION DEPENDING ON
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 09/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   39829862 40779556 41069270 40109266 39849569 39229863
               39829862 

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Page last modified: September 10, 2014
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