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Mesoscale Discussion 1703
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1703
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0900 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEB...NERN KS AND NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 499...

   VALID 100200Z - 100330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 499 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE TRANSITIONING TO HEAVY
   RAIN...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...A COUPLE TORNADOES
   REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY FROM NERN KS INTO NRN MO.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF MID-EVENING NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING
   FROM NERN KS INTO EXTREME SERN NEB AND NRN MO WHERE BROADENING AND
   INTENSIFYING LLJ IS INTERACTING WITH A CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED WARM
   FRONT. 0-2 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THE LLJ...AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE
   OBSERVED...MAINLY OVER NRN MO. HOWEVER...TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS
   TO MERGE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS WHICH /IN ADDITION TO THE
   STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER/ APPEAR TO BE SERVING AS LIMITING FACTORS
   FOR A MORE ROBUST TORNADO THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN SIZE OF THE
   LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD AND SEWD ALONG
   THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING.

   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 09/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   39799801 40349589 40279278 39249308 39479510 39439726
               39799801 

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Page last modified: September 10, 2014
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