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Mesoscale Discussion 1703
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1703
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1039 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS AND PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492...

   VALID 180339Z - 180545Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT CONTINUES FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
   POSSIBLY HAIL AS A LINE OF STORMS MOVES TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AT
   25-30 KT THROUGH SOUTHWEST KS TOWARD THE OK PANHANDLE...AND PERHAPS
   REACHING THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE.  A FURTHER INCREASE IN
   SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A GRADUAL
   DIMINISHING TREND IN THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...AT 0325Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF
   STORMS...EMBEDDED WITHIN A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...EXTENDING FROM
   GOVE COUNTY KS TO MORTON COUNTY KS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST BACA COUNTY
   CO.  THE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS COMPLEX IN
   SOUTHWEST KS SHOULD REMAIN THE STRONGEST AS A STRENGTHENING
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET PROVIDES A FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
   FORCING FOR ASCENT.  RECENT TRENDS IN THE SPEED OF THESE STORMS HAS
   INDICATED A SLOWER MOTION...WHILE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED AN
   EXPECTED INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION.  A FORECAST FOR
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE TSTM COMPLEX
   OVERNIGHT AS IT ADVANCES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...THOUGH WEAKENING
   INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AFTER 05-06Z.

   ..PETERS.. 08/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   35700295 36510271 37140257 37560197 38250197 38250111
               37160105 36490094 36040120 35900204 35630221 35600267
               35700295 

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Page last modified: August 18, 2015
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