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Mesoscale Discussion 1704
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1704
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1032 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 100332Z - 100500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS OVER CNTRL KS TO INTENSIFY AND
   BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY DEVELOP EAST. CONVECTIVE AND
   MESOSCALE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...LATE THIS EVENING STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER
   CNTRL KS WITHIN ZONE OF CONVERGENCE ALONG A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT.
   THE DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE WARM AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   WHERE NEAR SFC TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 80S. STORMS MAY CONTINUE
   TO INCREASE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE STRONG LLJ AND THE MORE
   UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR STORMS TO
   BECOME ORIENTED MORE N-S OVER CNTRL KS WITH A GREATER COMPONENT
   NORMAL TO THE STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH 35-45
   KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY CONTRIBUTE TO BOWING AND LEWP STRUCTURES AND
   A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS ARE THE
   TENDENCY FOR 700 MB TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY BUT GRADUALLY WARM AND A
   STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...IF STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW A
   TREND TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED.

   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 09/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38659848 39329722 39509597 38969557 37949665 37899818
               38659848 

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Page last modified: September 10, 2014
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