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Mesoscale Discussion 1704
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1704
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO AND EASTERN IA TO
   WEST/NORTHWEST IL AND SOUTHERN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 181749Z - 181945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
   DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS
   EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MO AND EASTERN IA INTO WEST/NORTHWEST IL AND
   SOUTHERN WI. SOME SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT DAMAGING WINDS
   AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS. ONE OR MORE WATCH
   ISSUANCES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON PRINCIPALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF MO AND FAR EASTERN
   IA INTO IL...IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF AN ARCING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE QUAD CITIES AREA SOUTHEASTWARD TO
   EAST-CENTRAL IL/CENTRAL INDIANA. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
   REFLECTS SOME TOWERING CU BENEATH THE CIRRUS IN VICINITY OF THE
   BOUNDARY...WHILE MORE PREVALENT TOWERING CU IS NOTED WITHIN A WEAK
   BOUNDARY/ZONE OF CONFLUENCE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MO. A
   NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING MCV/VORT MAX CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
   MO/SOUTHWEST IA WILL ENHANCE FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR
   ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INCREASING SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
   LIKELY BY MID-AFTERNOON.

   AS LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST
   IN AREAS NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE MODIFYING/NORTHWARD-SHIFTING
   OUTFLOW-RELATED ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING /CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR
   EASTERN IA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IL/ WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY
   WILL BE MAXIMIZED. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE A PREVALENT
   CONCERN...WITH SOME SEVERE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 08/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   43428925 41258883 38709002 37369148 37999253 40119182
               42859134 43428925 

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Page last modified: August 18, 2015
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