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Mesoscale Discussion 1705
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1705
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHERN
   OKLAHOMA...WESTERN MISSOURI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 181911Z - 182145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED SVR WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
   FROM N TO S NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EWD/SEWD
   ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
   WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
   A MULTI-SEGMENTED FRONT...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF RELATED
   LOWER-THETA-E AIR ANALYZED APPROXIMATELY ALONG AN ARC FROM NEAR
   BEATRICE NEB TO NEAR SALINA KS TO NEAR GAGE OK. THE FRONTAL ZONE
   WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEING A
   FOCUS FOR CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN ADDITION TO
   W/E-ORIENTED...FRONT-PRECEDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS ERN KS.

   SFC HEATING/PRE-FRONTAL AIR-MASS RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
   CONVECTION/CLOUDS CONTINUE ENCOURAGING PRE-FRONTAL 
   DESTABILIZATION -- STRONGEST ACROSS S-CNTRL KS INTO ADJACENT NRN OK
   WHERE TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F AMIDST
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG.
   INITIAL TSTMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING INVOF THE FRONT IN NRN KS...AND
   THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS MODIFYING/DESTABILIZING
   AIR TO THE E. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL DEVELOP ITERATIVELY
   TO THE S INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND TO ITS E ALONG OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES -- EVENTUALLY INTO N-CNTRL OK BY LATE AFTERNOON AT THE
   LEADING EDGE OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES /IN THE LOWER 90S/
   EMANATING FROM THE SW. WATER-VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY THE STRONGEST ASCENT
   RESIDING ACROSS KS/MO WHERE THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
   LIKELY EXIST...THOUGH AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD TRAIL SWD INTO
   OK BY EVENING.

   VWPS SUGGEST AROUND 30-35 KT OF DEEP SHEAR RESIDING ACROSS THE
   REGION...WITH SOME FLOW-DIRECTION VARIABILITY STEMMING FROM A
   VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE. THIS SHOULD OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR
   A FEW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE OCCURRENCES...POSSIBLY INCLUDING
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SMALL QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SVR HAIL/WIND. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
   NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...AND SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN VEERING WITH TIME
   AS LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS ADJUST IN TANDEM WITH THE NEWD ADVANCE OF
   THE STRONGER SFC CYCLONE -- LIMITING THE OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL.
   HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT /1/ ALONG
   VORTICITY-RICH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.../2/ IN MODIFYING AIR WHERE THE
   PBL IS SHELTERED OFFERING GREATER VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...AND
   /3/ IN THE PLUME OF STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING INTO
   N-CNTRL OK.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 08/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37789794 38639761 39149724 39819630 39649439 38139411
               37099538 36239734 35929828 36109906 36609900 37789794 

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