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Mesoscale Discussion 1706
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1706
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0502 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NERN MO INTO PORTIONS OF
   WRN/CENTRAL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 101002Z - 101200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
   THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH ANY BOWING STRUCTURES.  GIVEN THE
   LIMITED AND OVERALL LOCALIZED NATURE OF THIS THREAT...A WW IS NOT
   WARRANTED.

   DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW
   LOCATED IN CENTRAL IA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD THROUGH NWRN
   MO...NERN KS TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA IN NWRN OK.  A
   QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED EWD TROUGH NRN MO TO CENTRAL
   IL...AND WAS CO-LOCATED WITH THE WIDESPREAD CORRIDOR OF ONGOING
   CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS IN NRN MO.  THE ENVIRONMENT IN VICINITY OF
   THE LATTER E-W BOUNDARY IS VERY MOIST/SATURATED WITH PW VALUES
   RANGING FROM 2-2.25 INCHES AND LITTLE SPREAD IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   AND DEW POINTS WITH VALUES INTO THE LOWER 70S.  A SWLY 50+ KT LLJ
   EXTENDED INTO THE ONGOING TSTM COMPLEX FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MO TO
   WEST-CENTRAL IL...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL BE
   MAINTAINED ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH 12-15Z.

   THIS TSTM COMPLEX IN NERN MO TO CENTRAL IL APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
   WITH A LEAD MIDLEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING 50+ KT WLY MIDLEVEL
   JET...CURRENTLY TRACKING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION PER SATELLITE
   IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE WSR-88D VWPS.  ASIDE FROM THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE
   LOWS...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO MCVS ATTENDANT TO THE TSTM
   COMPLEX...1/ MOVING INTO WEST-CENTRAL IL...AND 2/ MOVING INTO
   NORTH-CENTRAL MO.  ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THESE FEATURES AND LOW-LEVEL
   WAA COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-55 KT SUGGESTS
   ADDITIONAL ISOLATED BOWING STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
   EARLY MORNING.  RECENT EWD TRACK OF A SHORT LINE SEGMENT MOVING
   THROUGH MACON COUNTY MO HAD A SPEED OF 55-60 KT.  GIVEN THE LACK OF
   A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...PRECIPITATION LOADING OF DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR STRONG WINDS/MOMENTUM TO REACH THE
   SURFACE.  MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD...HOWEVER...LIMIT THE COVERAGE
   OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND THUS THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 09/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39869297 40309246 40539135 40519058 40429016 40008976
               39569012 39289062 39089136 39039169 38999216 39019269
               39069297 39299308 39869297 

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Page last modified: September 10, 2014
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