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Mesoscale Discussion 1706
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1706
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0315 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 182015Z - 182245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR-TSTM RISK MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WHILE
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS
   PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS CUMULUS
   DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY INVOF A FRONTAL SEGMENT THAT HAS ADVANCED SWD
   ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...EXTENDING FROM S OF RATON NM TO NEAR
   AMARILLO TX TO NEAR GAGE OK. FRONTAL ASCENT -- LOCALLY BOLSTERED BY
   ITS UPSLOPE TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE ROCKIES FRONT RANGE -- MAY SUPPORT
   ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AN OTHERWISE
   NEUTRAL LARGE-SCALE VERTICAL-MOTION FIELD BASED ON RECENT WATER
   VAPOR LOOPS. STRONG SFC HEATING/DIURNALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY AHEAD
   OF THE FRONT MAY ENCOURAGE SUCH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WITH MLCAPE AROUND
   1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA -- EVEN EXTENDING TO THE IMMEDIATE
   COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY IN A RECYCLED-MOISTURE REGIME
   CHARACTERIZED BY A SHELTERED PBL WITH LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS -- MAY
   SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORES PROVIDED H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
   AROUND 7-8 C/KM. ISOLATED SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND A SVR
   WIND GUST MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO DEEPER FRONTAL INTRUSION...GIVEN 20-35
   KT OF EFFECTIVE-BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE FRONTAL
   SEGMENT AND ITS RELATED EROSION OF DEEPER BUOYANCY PROFILES...AND
   GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT...THE OVERALL SVR RISK MAY
   REMAIN ISOLATED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. REGARDLESS...CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 08/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35929962 35349950 34649957 34300023 34340236 34590351
               35290447 35810457 36150444 36440371 35630241 35540144
               36040015 35929962 

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Page last modified: August 18, 2015
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