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Mesoscale Discussion 1706
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1706
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0220 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern Oklahoma and southeastern

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 091920Z - 092115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered severe storms are expected to
   develop over the next few hours. These storms will persist through
   the mid/late evening hours, with an attendant threat of large hail,
   damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. Watch issuance is
   likely within the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite this afternoon depicts two areas of
   increasing convective potential -- one stretching across
   east-central Oklahoma ahead of a cold front and another over
   southeast Kansas ahead of a weak surface low. Large-scale mid/upper
   ascent likely remains somewhat weak, with the primary shortwave
   trough situated over the Four Corners region. However, ongoing
   heating, modest warm-air advection ahead of the low, and convergence
   along the cold front will likely be sufficient to overcome any
   remaining inhibition across the region.

   While mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep (generally 7
   C/km or less) across eastern OK and southeast KS, rich
   boundary-layer moisture and sufficient heating have yielded around
   1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Meanwhile, increasing 500mb
   southwesterlies atop low-level south/southeasterly winds are
   offering ample effective shear for updraft organization/rotation. In
   turn, more robust cores will be capable of large hail and damaging
   winds through this evening. A tornado or two may also be possible
   early this evening, considering the backed surface flow across far
   southeast KS and eastern OK. However, the advance of the cold front
   and loss of favorable surface-based buoyancy with eastward extent
   will likely keep the tornado threat rather confined in space/time.
   Regardless, watch issuance is likely within the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Picca/Grams.. 10/09/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34989651 35449696 36149708 37089705 37329717 37949676
               38099597 37919542 37289506 36149472 35079498 34759595

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