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Mesoscale Discussion 1707
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1707
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1034 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL..IND...WRN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 101534Z - 101730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASE IN
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
   A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
   NRN IL AND WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS INDIANA...NWRN OH AND
   LOWER MI. WIND PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE RELATIVELY
   STRONG...WITH AREA VWPS SHOWING 300-400 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH. 

   AROUND 1430Z...A WEAK THUNDERSTORM SHOWED BRIEF SUPERCELL
   CHARACTERISTICS OVER CNTRL IL...BUT IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY UPDRAFT
   HAS SINCE DETACHED FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER INFLOW AND HAS BECOME
   ELEVATED...SHIFTING LEFTWARD. HOWEVER...THIS SUGGESTS THE
   ENVIRONMENT IS CLOSE TO BEING FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST BRIEF
   TORNADOES...CONDITIONAL MAINLY ON SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTBILIZATION OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH THE LEADING DISTURBANCE.

   15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE 70-71 F RANGE WIDESPREAD
   NOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND GRADUALLY SPREADING NWD ACROSS
   INDIANA AND WRN OH. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TEMPERATURES WERE PRESENT
   ACROSS SRN IL...AND THIS HIGHER THETA-E AIR SHOULD SPREAD NWD LATER
   THIS MORNING ACROSS INDIANA. A LIMITING FACTOR IS EXTENSIVE CLOUD
   COVER AHEAD OF THE LEADING BAND OF PRECIPITATION...BUT PARTIAL
   HEATING IS OCCURRING ACROSS SWRN INDIANA.

   IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER DESTABILIZATION VIA LOW-LEVEL ADVECTION WILL
   BE SUFFICIENT FOR FURTHER SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT TODAY BEFORE THE
   AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ONCE THIS WAVE
   PASSES...EARLY POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LARGELY OVER...WITH ANY
   ADDITIONAL AND PRIMARILY WIND THREAT FOCUSING SWWD ALONG THE
   TRAILING COLD FRONT.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 09/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   40448798 41008742 41458634 41618527 41528427 40888379
               40178393 39628533 39258655 39148749 39318829 39758843
               40448798 

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Page last modified: September 10, 2014
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