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Mesoscale Discussion 1708
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1708
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0651 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2017

   Areas affected...Northeast OK...Southeast KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499...

   Valid 092351Z - 100115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail will continue to be the primary threat with
   storms this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered convection is beginning to mature along the
   advancing wind shift over northeast OK with lightning now detected
   with updrafts over Osage County. Frontal convection may gradually
   increase across northeast OK over the next few hours but overall
   intensity of this activity may struggle to produce more than
   isolated large hail. Latest MRMS data at times exhibits hail
   approaching 1" but mostly marginally severe. One reason may be that
   large-scale forcing for ascent lags this region considerably. In
   addition, the onset of boundary-layer cooling will result in
   updrafts becoming increasingly elevated in nature. Even so, some
   threat for isolated severe will continue for the next few hours.

   ..Darrow.. 10/09/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35259672 38109726 38129487 35269441 35259672 

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Page last modified: October 10, 2017
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