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Mesoscale Discussion 1708
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1708
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0148 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO...CNTRL IL...FAR W-CNTRL IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 101848Z - 102045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
   WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
   FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA HAVE INDICATED
   AN INCREASE IN TSTM STRENGTH ACROSS CNTRL IL AHEAD OF A SEWD
   PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
   KEEP LAPSE RATES AND OVERALL INSTABILITY LOW BUT A VERY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL PROMOTE AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY. THIS
   AREA IS ON THE SWRN EDGE OF THE INCREASED LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW BUT
   SHEAR REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. RECENT
   ILX VAD SHOWS DECENT LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH 0-3
   KM SRH OVER 300 M2/S2. 

   STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY MULTICELLULAR WITH TRANSIENT BOWING
   SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. AS A
   RESULT...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH A
   BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

   ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 09/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38659156 39209127 40078972 40628799 40128712 38438848
               37858996 38229105 38659156 

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Page last modified: September 10, 2014
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