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Mesoscale Discussion 1708
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1708
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL MS...CNTRL AL...CNTRL
   GA...CNTRL/SRN SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 182038Z - 182315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A RISK FOR STRONG TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DMGG
   WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITHIN A BROAD CORRIDOR FROM PARTS OF THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE
   NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...RICH TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PW AROUND
   2.0-2.2 INCHES PER GPS IMAGERY AND VERY WEAK CAPPING...COUPLED WITH
   AREAS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WILL CONTINUE TO FACILITATE MULTIPLE
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON. WHILE WATER-VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST A DEARTH OF LARGE-SCALE
   FOCI FOR UPWARD MOTION...VWPS SAMPLE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
   FLOW SUPPORTING AROUND 25 KT OF DEEP SHEAR OWING TO A MODEST HEIGHT
   GRADIENT BETWEEN CNTRL-CONUS TROUGHING AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WELL
   TO THE SE. A REMNANT CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PERTURBATION CROSSING NRN
   AL/GA IS ALSO LOCALLY AUGMENTING MASS FIELDS AND VERTICAL
   SHEAR...AND PERHAPS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...
   OCCASIONALLY SUSTAINED CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EWD AS COLD POOLS
   LOOSELY AMALGAMATE TO FACILITATE WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS. HOWEVER...POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELDING ONLY MODEST
   BUOYANCY...AND THE LACK OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW...WILL LIMIT
   THE OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE
   ISOLATED DMGG WINDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON -- PARTICULARLY IN AREAS
   WHERE STRONG SFC HEATING HAS OCCURRED OWING TO INSOLATION -- AS
   AIDED BY WATER-LOADING PROCESSES.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 08/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...
   HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   31628862 32568990 34118852 34368288 34228046 33447934
               32458044 31638314 31628862 

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Page last modified: August 18, 2015
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