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Mesoscale Discussion 1710
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1710
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0436 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...NRN AR...FAR SRN IL/WRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502...

   VALID 102136Z - 102300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS PRE-FRONTAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
   AND S OF WW 502 WILL POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH
   ISSUANCE TO THE S.

   DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED FROM NEAR JEF TO MKO. A
   PRE-FRONTAL CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS FORMED ACROSS S-CNTRL AND SERN MO
   WITH MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT INTO NWRN AR. WITH THIS REGION LYING
   ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE...AIR MASS IS
   LIKELY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. ON THE
   FRINGE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW...SUFFICIENT SHEAR SHOULD EXIST
   FOR MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
   AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THIS THREAT SHOULD EXIST FOR A FEW
   HOURS...AS LOWER-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE
   EVENING.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 09/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36199375 37489171 38219089 38438998 38378928 38248821
               38348804 38008779 37588776 36918818 36328948 35819077
               35389286 35409369 35919401 36199375 

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Page last modified: September 10, 2014
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