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Mesoscale Discussion 1710
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1710
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0515 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN OK INTO CNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495...

   VALID 182215Z - 182345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN KS INTO NORTHERN OK THIS EVENING.
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WITH
   POSSIBLY A FEW INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL AS WELL. AS STORMS TRACK
   EASTWARD...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL MO...AND A NEW
   WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
   INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL OK INTO EASTERN
   KS. WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES NEAR 35-45
   KT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES REMAIN MODEST AND THE BEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE
   OVER OK WHERE STRONGER HEATING HAS OCCURRED. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
   KS...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STRONGER THAN FURTHER SOUTH AND STORM
   MOTION FASTER.  ALL OF THIS COMBINED WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
   DAMAGING-WIND THREAT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS MERGE AND POSSIBLY
   DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS. SOME SEVERE
   HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE LACKLUSTER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   THAT THREAT SEEMS SECONDARY TO THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. 

   TO THE EAST OF WATCH 495 ACROSS CENTRAL MO...EARLIER CLOUD COVER HAS
   HAS MOSTLY CLEARED. HOWEVER...SOME INHIBITION STILL EXISTS HERE
   WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE JUST NOW CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
   80S. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THOUGH HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES
   APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE AS STORMS
   TRACK EASTWARD OUT OF WATCH 495. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   ..LEITMAN/EDWARDS.. 08/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   39519543 40059421 40239292 40019218 39369168 38479199
               37849267 35339871 35249926 35409941 35819943 36639871
               38109715 39519543 

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Page last modified: August 18, 2015
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