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Mesoscale Discussion 1711
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1711
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0511 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 501...

   VALID 102211Z - 102315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 501 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
   NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF DISCRETE CELLS FORMED EARLIER THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS NE OH...AND THESE STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED LOW-TOPPED
   SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A COUPLE OF REPORTED TORNADOES.  THIS
   CONVECTION RESIDES IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MOIST WITH WEAK
   SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PER THE CLE VWP. 
   THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY DIURNAL WITH A DECREASE IN
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY EXPECTED AFTER 00-01Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
   HEATING.  AT THIS TIME...THE TORNADO RISK IS NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD
   E OF THE CURRENT WATCH CONFIGURATION THAT EXTENDS EWD TO THE PA
   BORDER.

   FARTHER SW...CONVECTION IS LOOSELY ORGANIZED ALONG A DIFFUSE
   PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/CONFLUENCE AXIS COINCIDENT WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...FROM NW OH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.  LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH
   CURVATURE IS LESS THAN AREAS FARTHER TO THE NE IN OH...BUT STILL
   SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS.  THUS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND A
   FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..THOMPSON.. 09/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   42118028 41438019 40918038 40578112 40308174 40108305
               39518532 39218718 39608724 40258565 41068398 41708335
               41828319 41638242 41718165 41988103 42118028 

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Page last modified: September 10, 2014
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