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Mesoscale Discussion 1711
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1711
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0635 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MO/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493...

   VALID 182335Z - 190130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 493
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS
   ADVANCING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN
   IL.  A LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION IN AREA FOR WW 493 MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
   SOUTHEAST IL...AS STORMS EXIT THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PART OF THIS
   WATCH BY 00Z.  COUNTIES IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY BAND OF STORMS
   CAN CONTINUE TO BE CANCELLED.  MEANWHILE...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AND SPREADING INTO
   FAR SOUTHERN IL AND ADJACENT KY...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO BE LESS...WITH WW ISSUANCE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...AT 2330Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A GENERALLY
   NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED QLCS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL WI TO
   SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST IL...WITH A SECOND BROKEN BAND OF STORMS
   LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST MO.  ALL OF THESE STORMS WERE TENDING TO MOVE
   TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED THE ENVIRONMENT
   AHEAD OF THE QLCS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL TO WESTERN INDIANA
   CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHERN PART OF WW
   493 INTO WW 494.  GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO THE
   EAST ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHEAST IL...A LOCAL WFO EXTENSION IN AREA
   MAY BE NEEDED IN THE SHORT TERM.  

   FARTHER SOUTH...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WW 493 AND INTO FAR
   SOUTHERN IL...SOUTHEAST MO AND ADJACENT WRN KY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   EXPERIENCE STRONG STORMS WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE.  HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE MORE
   LIMITED GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER BULK SHEAR AND VERY WEAK MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES.  DCAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
   7-7.5 C/KM FROM NORTHEAST AR TO FAR SOUTHERN IL SUGGEST LOCALLY
   STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 08/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37749121 38599039 39249010 39728960 40318963 40318844
               40428763 39458759 38778766 38288770 37618828 37088901
               36528950 36399007 36569142 37749121 

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Page last modified: August 19, 2015
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