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Mesoscale Discussion 1712
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1712
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0717 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND FAR NORTHWEST AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 190017Z - 190145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
   ACROSS NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHEAST MO AND FAR NORTHWEST AR THIS
   EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH
   ISSUANCE DOWNSTREAM OF WATCH 495.

   DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF WATCH 495 FROM NE OK INTO SW
   MO REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR /25-35
   KT/. WHILE THE 00Z SGF RAOB INDICATES SOME WEAK INHIBITION ALREADY
   PRESENT...THERE MAY STILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
   STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND NEAR-SEVERE HAIL AS STORM CLUSTERS/LINEAR
   SEGMENTS NEAR THE COLD FRONT OVER SE KS AND N-CENTRAL OK TRACK E/SE.
   THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE FROM THE SGF RAOB WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING
   STORMS AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND
   GUSTS. HOWEVER...WITH SUNSET NEARING...COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION AFTER ABOUT 02Z.
   IT IS UNCLEAR IF A DOWNSTREAM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED...BUT CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..LEITMAN/EDWARDS.. 08/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37359247 37689249 37869255 38059281 38169320 38089396
               37479472 36649570 36139599 35939581 35799534 35849479
               36069401 36519309 37359247 

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Page last modified: August 19, 2015
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