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Mesoscale Discussion 1714
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1714
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0824 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE...NERN NM.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 190124Z - 190400Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION NOW OVER
   NERN NM...AND/OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO ITS E AND ALONG AND N OF
   SFC COLD FRONT.  MIXED SIGNALS EXIST ATTM REGARDING ORGANIZED SVR
   POTENTIAL INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE WW DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE/INSTABILITY TRENDS.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS AND AMA REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY SHOWED
   SFC COLD FRONTAL SEGMENT MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS
   COLLINGSWORTH/DONLEY/ARMSTRONG/RANDALL/DEAF SMITH COUNTIES
   TX...BEFORE ARCHING NWWD ACROSS QUAY COUNTY NM.  FRONT SHOULD
   CONTINUE SLOW SWD MOVEMENT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE REINFORCING
   CAA SURGE SHUNTS IT INTO SOUTH PLAINS REGION LATER THIS EVENING.

   ISOLATED SVR TSTM OVER UNION COUNTY NM HAS PRODUCED OCNL SVR HAIL UP
   TO 1.75 INCH DIAMETER.  THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED IN ZONE OF UPSLOPE
   FLOW INVOF RATON MESA BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT.  THAT PROCESS WILL
   BECOME LESS CRITICAL TO TSTM INITIATION WITH TIME...BEHIND STABLE
   SFC OUTFLOW OF LEADING TSTMS.  HOWEVER...EXPECT ZONE OF
   FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO IMPINGE ON REGIME OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
   ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ...CONTRIBUTING TO ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
   LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND/OR UPSCALE EXPANSION
   OF TSTMS MOVING SEWD OUT OF NM.  MODIFIED AMA RAOB SHOWS MLCAPE
   REMAINING IN 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT
   WITH INCREASING SBCINH/MLCINH.  HOWEVER...ELEVATED MUCAPE SHOULD
   REMAIN IN THAT RANGE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER...GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 DEG C/KM.  30-45-KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES
   ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION...SUPPORTING
   ORGANIZED TSTMS.  MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND
   OCNL HAIL.

   ..EDWARDS.. 08/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36020327 36060269 35750127 35230023 34740012 34400046
               34290179 34810282 35370318 36020327 

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Page last modified: August 19, 2015
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