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Mesoscale Discussion 1714
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1714
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1144 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OH...NERN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 110444Z - 110545Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND RISK SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN AN
   OVERALL WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BAND.

   DISCUSSION...NRN PORTION OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY HAD RECENTLY
   ACCELERATED WITH A BOWING SURGE EVIDENT CROSSING INTO NRN KY FROM
   SERN IND. THIS TYPE OF STRUCTURE MAY YIELD STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE
   NEAR-TERM AMIDST 45-55 KT 1 KM AGL SWLYS SAMPLED IN ILN/LVX VWP
   DATA. BUT OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND
   DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING. THIS WEAKENING TENDENCY IS
   EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NE AWAY FROM
   THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND THE LINE PROGRESSES FARTHER E ACROSS MEAGER
   INSTABILITY PER MODIFIED 00Z BNA/ILN RAOBS.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 09/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   39258459 39368404 39378346 39258287 38978276 38508308
               38218346 37988381 37798441 37898517 38108526 38368500
               39258459 

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Page last modified: September 11, 2014
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