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Mesoscale Discussion 1715
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1715
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1207 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 190507Z - 190700Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR A SEVERE WIND GUST SHOULD BE THE GREATEST IN
   A SOMEWHAT NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN COU AND STL INTO THE EARLY
   OVERNIGHT /THROUGH 07-08Z/...WHILE LOCALLY STRONG TO PERHAPS A
   SEVERE WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE YET ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MO. 
   LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT...CURRENTLY PRECLUDES
   THE NEED FOR A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...AT 0445Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW TWO
   SEPARATE CLUSTERS OF STORMS IN MO...1/ LOCATED BETWEEN COU AND STL
   TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JEF...WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT MOVING TOWARD STL
   WITH THE FASTEST STORM MOTION OF CLOSE TO 40 KT...AND 2/ MOVING INTO
   SOUTH-CENTRAL MO.  RESIDUAL MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR OF 35-40 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ARE SUFFICIENT TO
   SUSTAIN STORMS...BUT GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND WEAK HEIGHT
   FALLS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF STRONGER
   STORMS.  IN ADDITION...STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF THE
   SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY/WESTERN WARREN COUNTIES SHOULD LIMIT THE SPATIAL
   EXTENT OF A SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT TOWARD STL.  FARTHER SOUTH...THE
   SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   CONTINUES TO ADVANCE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 08/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36589345 37219270 37709229 38369228 38979163 39039090
               38769063 38339075 37099149 36579212 36459299 36589345 

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Page last modified: August 19, 2015
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