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Mesoscale Discussion 1715
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1715
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0324 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/NE NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 112024Z - 112230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS ACROSS CNTRL AND NERN NM. LOW INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR WILL
   KEEP ANY SVR THREAT LOW AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
   TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL NM AS DAYTIME HEATING RESULTS IN
   DESTABILIZATION ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND
   NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50 TO
   LOW 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE
   TO INCREASE BUT WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY POOR LAPSE
   RATES WILL ACT AS LIMITING FACTORS...LIKELY KEEPING MLCAPE VALUES AT
   OR BELOW 1000 J/KG. MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION IS RELATIVELY
   MODEST. HDX VAD PROFILE SUGGESTS 0-6 KM SHEAR BELOW 20 KT. BETTER
   SHEAR LIKELY EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL AND N-CNTRL NM BUT STORMS ARE STILL
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED WITH ANY SVR THREAT LIKELY
   TIED TO STORM MERGERS AND RESULTANT UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION. AS
   SUCH...DESPITE SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY...SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN ISOLATED.

   ..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 09/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   33540444 33160565 33580660 34230647 34680617 36160485
               36270359 33540444 

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Page last modified: September 11, 2014
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