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Mesoscale Discussion 1716
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1716
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0453 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE CO/NE NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 112153Z - 112330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALIZED SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THIS EVENING WITH A FEW STORMS NEAR THE RATON MESA.

   DISCUSSION...A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
   MTNS WITH THE CELL OVER LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO EXHIBITING SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURE. OVERALL BUOYANCY IS LIKELY WEAK...BUT A PERSISTENT
   LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MAINLY MIDDLE
   50S SURFACE DEW POINTS...ALONG AND S OF A W/E-ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS
   FAR SERN CO. THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS. VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT
   OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT ROTATION WHICH SHOULD YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL IN A COUPLE OF STORMS. THE NRN PORTION OF THE SURFACE-BASED
   CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED IN ERN CO BY ABUNDANT STRATUS/COLD
   TEMPERATURES N OF THE FRONT.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 09/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37540461 37760362 38010264 37930224 37690198 37220197
               36680256 36230334 35970423 35870490 35990520 36180513
               36390510 37540461 

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Page last modified: September 11, 2014
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