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Mesoscale Discussion 1717
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MD 1717 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1717
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0648 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...SWRN NEB...NWRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 142348Z - 150115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND
   WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE
   THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.
   UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT
   MAKES WATCH ISSUANCE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...AT 2340Z...AN INTENSE TSTM CLUSTER WAS ONGOING ACROSS
   EXTREME NERN CO...WITH BASEBALL-SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT 2312Z IN
   LOGAN COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY EVOLVED OUT OF A PLUME OF RELATIVELY
   WEAK HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THAT INTENSIFIED AS IT ENCOUNTERED
   STRONGER INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG NOTED PER
   RECENT MESOANALYSIS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS IS MORE THAN
   SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...WITH VERY STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING A CONTINUED HAIL RISK. A DAMAGING
   WIND RISK MAY ALSO EVOLVE IF UPSCALE GROWTH OF THE CLUSTER
   CONTINUES. 

   THE LONGEVITY OF THE SEVERE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLUSTER MAY BE
   LIMITED...WITH LOWER THETA-E AND WEAKER INSTABILITY NOTED WITH EWD
   EXTENT. THE CLUSTER WILL LIKELY ATTEMPT TO PROPAGATE SEWD ALONG THE
   INSTABILITY GRADIENT...POTENTIALLY APPROACHING AREAS NEAR OR JUST
   NORTH OF GLD BETWEEN 01-02Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. GIVEN THE
   UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE THREAT...WW
   ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   ..DEAN/HART.. 09/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40370285 40580273 40840239 40900180 40650115 40180066
               39740048 39160083 38970123 39020169 39170219 39480272
               40210292 40370285 

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Page last modified: September 15, 2014
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