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Mesoscale Discussion 1718
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1718
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0114 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 191814Z - 192015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/SMALL HAIL
   AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO MAY INCREASE BY MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI.

   DISCUSSION...JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW/VORT MAX APPROACHING WESTERN
   LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY...AN ARCING LOW-TOPPED BAND OF CONVECTION IS
   READILY APPARENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
   NEAR A NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI/NORTHEAST
   WI. WHILE CLOUD COVER PRECEDES THIS FRONTAL BAND...SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S F
   AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH BACKING
   SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL HEATING SHOULD
   ALLOW FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP/SOMEWHAT INCREASE
   NEAR/AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO MID-AFTERNOON. GIVEN AMPLE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT/STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...AS PER RECENT MARQUETTE WSR-88D VWP
   DATA...A CONCERN FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/POSSIBLY A TORNADO WILL
   EXIST ACROSS UPPER MI PROVIDED THE DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE OF SOME
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITHIN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 08/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...

   LAT...LON   44438696 45708798 46728936 46908768 46768419 45958389
               45398621 44438696 

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Page last modified: August 19, 2015
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