Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1718
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1718 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1718
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0931 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL MO AND WRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 151431Z - 151630Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW STRONGER/SUSTAINED STORMS
   DEVELOPING AND TRACKING ESEWD ACROSS NRN TO EAST-CENTRAL MO AND FAR
   WRN IL THIS MORNING.  THIS THREAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED
   /3-4 HOURS/ AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVES EWD FROM THIS
   REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
   LOCATED IN FAR NWRN MO...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD THROUGH NRN
   MO TO CENTRAL IL.  MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
   SSEWD INTO THE MID MS AND LOWER MO VALLEYS...AND TOWARD NRN OK
   TODAY.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
   ACROSS WRN INTO CENTRAL MO WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT
   DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG A
   30-35 KT WLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO THIS MORNING.  ALTHOUGH
   CONVECTION COULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE
   STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALBEIT RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS MO...IS
   EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THIS REGION AS AN ERN IA SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   TRACKS INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES.  

   THE ONGOING STRONG STORM IN NWRN MO...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL
   AROUND 1 INCH PER TRENDS IN WDSS-II MESH PRODUCT...IS LIKELY BEING
   FED BY THE WLY LLJ WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG.  EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM
   ORGANIZATION THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THE JUXTAPOSITION OF
   MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW PER THE WLY LLJ...ERN EXTENT OF A STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME...AND GLANCING EFFECT OF THE DEPARTING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL
   STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z WITHIN A NARROW
   CORRIDOR FROM NWRN TO EAST-CENTRAL MO.  ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR WILL BE
   STRONGER AND FORCING FOR ASCENT A LITTLE GREATER INTO WRN IL PER
   CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
   LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH EWD EXTENT INTO IL.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 09/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39699435 39799223 39919105 39399039 38919027 38579100
               38539165 38709283 38989383 39259434 39699435 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: September 15, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities