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Mesoscale Discussion 1719
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1719
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0134 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 191834Z - 192030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE ACROSS
   LOWER MI THROUGH MID/LATE-AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

   DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN
   TO INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
   LOWER MI AHEAD OF AN EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AN 18Z
   SPECIAL SOUNDING FROM DETROIT FEATURED NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION WITH AROUND 650 J/KG MLCAPE AMID RELATIVELY WEAK
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /5.4 C PER KM 700-500 MB/. WHILE DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR WAS MODEST /25 KT/...UPSTREAM OBSERVED/DERIVED WIND PROFILES
   SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH INCREASING
   PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI. IN THE PRESENCE OF GRADUALLY
   STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BY LATE
   AFTERNOON/...SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST
   ENVIRONMENT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
   DEVELOP/REMAIN SUSTAINED. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN
   RISK. DEVELOPMENT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WATCH.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 08/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   41978332 42228500 45048544 45738455 45298327 43878239
               43088236 41978332 

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Page last modified: August 19, 2015
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