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Mesoscale Discussion 1720
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1720
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0245 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN MS...SRN AR...NRN LA...CNTRL/ERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 191945Z - 192215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS AREAS FROM
   THE MID-SOUTH TO THE ARKLATEX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING FARTHER W INTO CNTRL TX THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE REGION AT THE PRESENT
   TIME.

   DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSES PLACE A COLD FRONT FROM NERN AR W OF
   MEMPHIS TO N OF TEXARKANA TO S OF THE DFW METROPLEX TO THE TX BIG
   COUNTRY. AMPLE MOISTURE AND WEAK CAPPING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
   CONTINUE TO FACILITATE TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX
   TO THE MID-SOUTH. LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING RELATIVELY
   GREATER-COVERAGE ACTIVITY IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER W INTO CNTRL
   TX...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FOSTER ISOLATED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT WWD INVOF THE BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF IT DURING THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. DESPITE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE AROUND
   1500-2500 J/KG -- AIDED BY RICH PBL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER
   60S/LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS -- MAY SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE TSTMS WITH
   DMGG WIND GUSTS. EFFICIENT WATER LOADING ASSOCIATED WITH PW OF
   1.8-2.2 INCHES WILL ALSO BOLSTER THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS. 
   THE STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO CNTRL TX MAY ALSO ENHANCE
   SUCH DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL...WHERE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT. HOWEVER...WITH AREA VWPS INDICATING 25 KT OR LESS OF DEEP
   SHEAR...AND WITHOUT STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENCOURAGING
   STRONGER UPWARD CONVECTIVE ACCELERATIONS...ANY SVR RISK SHOULD
   REMAIN ISOLATED.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 08/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30649701 30639848 31649880 32349752 33139404 34089168
               35058981 34708891 33918955 32499197 31449454 30649701 

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Page last modified: August 19, 2015
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