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Mesoscale Discussion 1721
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0516 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 162216Z - 170015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST INTO
   THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
   HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE MAINTENANCE OF ONGOING STORMS ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL AR. THIS ACTIVITY LIES N OF A WAVY STATIONARY
   BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM GREENVILLE MS TO HOT SPRINGS AR TO FORT SMITH
   AR. THE PRESENCE OF SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70F
   IS AIDING MLCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW
   INTENSE UPDRAFTS. AND...WITH 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR...SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY CONTINUE TO
   ADVANCE SEWD/SSEWD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
   WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS A DMGG
   WIND GUST MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY AND THE
   LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL LIKELY PREVENT A MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM OCCURRING.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 09/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34169321 34999386 35339351 35029241 34279185 33769219
               34169321 

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Page last modified: September 17, 2014
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