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Mesoscale Discussion 1721
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0325 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW AND CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 192025Z - 192230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS AND SPREAD SWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS
   UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DRAPED W-E ACROSS CNTRL TX...THE
   AIR MASS FROM THE TX BIG BEND VICINITY TO CNTRL TX CONTINUES TO
   DESTABILIZE. SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES HAVE INCREASED TO 7.5-9.0 C/KM
   AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG.
   VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE DEEPER
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY INVOF THE COLD FRONT...WITH TOWERING
   CU NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
   CIRCULATIONS AROUND THE TX BIG BEND REGION. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
   THIS ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE
   MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUFFICIENTLY LARGE BUOYANCY WILL
   EXIST FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF SVR WIND/HAIL...WITH THE SVR-WIND
   POTENTIAL AIDED BY 1000-1500 J/KG OF DCAPE. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT IS LACKING PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY...AND EFFECTIVE-BULK SHEAR
   IS GENERALLY AOB 25 KT. THESE FACTORS WILL PREVENT A MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK FROM EVOLVING...THOUGH ISOLATED SVR TSTMS
   SPREADING SWD INTO THE EVENING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 08/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30250441 31320103 31459937 30869880 29909871 29160063
               29360113 29690175 29620256 29020294 28940330 29520441
               30250441 

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Page last modified: August 19, 2015
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