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Mesoscale Discussion 1722
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1722
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS THROUGH WRN AND SWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 170750Z - 170915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE TO
   OCCASIONAL HAIL AROUND 1 INCH THIS MORNING FROM ERN KS INTO WRN AND
   SWRN MO. A WW CURRENTLY DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NERN
   KS...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY OVER ERN KS AND WRN MO NEXT
   FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY IS INITIATING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SEWD MOVING
   VORT MAX AND WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT NE
   OF A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM NCNTRL KS SEWD THROUGH ERN OK.
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES A RESERVOIR OF 1500 J/KG MUCAPE ACROSS
   MUCH OF KS...AND THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG A 35 KT SWLY LLJ WILL
   PROMOTE A GRADUAL EWD DESTABILIZATION INTO WRN MO THIS MORNING. BOTH
   OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA INDICATE 7-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES
   BETWEEN 700-500 MB...BUT WITH A SMALL INVERSION AROUND 500 MB.
   EFFECTIVE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST MODEST
   MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. THIS ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR
   A THREAT OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH HAIL ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 09/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39499569 39129381 38089250 36899250 36619383 37859575
               39029668 39499569 

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Page last modified: September 17, 2014
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