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Mesoscale Discussion 1722
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1722
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0328 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL KY/MIDDLE TN AND SOUTHEAST
   INDIANA/SOUTHWEST OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 192028Z - 192230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   EAST-CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE/EASTERN TN INTO SOUTHEAST
   INDIANA/SOUTHWEST OH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTER OF STORMS IS
   SPREADING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KY/SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND
   MIDDLE TN AT MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
   CENTRAL/NORTHERN KY SEMI-FOCUSED NEAR A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED
   MODIFYING EARLY-DAY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE AMBIENT AIR MASS IS
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH 80S/70S F
   TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS RESPECTIVELY CONTRIBUTING TO UPWARDS OF
   1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. OVERALL FORCING/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT
   PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA
   FROM NASHVILLE SHOWS AROUND 35 KT OF 0-6 KT SHEAR AMID A BROADER
   CORRIDOR OF MODESTLY STRONG/UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
   THE LOWEST 3-6 KM. SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT THE PERSISTENCE OF MODESTLY
   ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS
   THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
   OVERALL LIMITED SCOPE/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE RISK WILL PRECLUDE A
   WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 08/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...

   LAT...LON   35448750 37098633 38528611 39228507 39238346 38848292
               37128365 35748455 35128562 35088702 35448750 

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Page last modified: August 19, 2015
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