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Mesoscale Discussion 1723
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1723
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MS...NRN AL...NWRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 192043Z - 192245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY TSTMS SPREADING
   NEWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WW ISSUANCE
   IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE SPREADING NEWD
   FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY TO THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE LATE
   AFTERNOON HOURS. POCKETS OF INSOLATION ACROSS THE AREA ARE
   SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG DESPITE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...AS ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE COVERS THE REGION -- E.G. PW
   VALUES AROUND 2.0-2.2 INCHES PER GPS DATA. AREA VWPS SAMPLE DEEP
   UNIDIRECTIONAL/SWLY FLOW WITH MID-LEVEL SPEEDS AROUND 20-30 KT THAT
   WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER SMALL...NEWD-ELONGATING/MOVING COLD POOLS
   WITH CONVECTION SPREADING NEWD. ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY 
   OCCUR -- ASSISTED BY WATER-LOADING PROCESSES IN WET MICROBURSTS.
   HOWEVER...MODEST FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...LIMITED NORMALIZED
   CAPE...AND NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS ALOFT AT THE SYNOPTIC
   SCALE ALL SUGGEST THAT ANY DMGG-WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ISOLATED.
   TSTMS SHOULD LESSEN IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY EARLY EVENING AS
   NOCTURNAL COOLING OCCURS AND HIGH THETA-E AIR IN THE PBL IS
   CONVECTIVELY PROCESSED.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 08/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   34748433 33858435 32918591 32768798 33428866 34458852
               34868743 34918571 34748433 

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Page last modified: August 19, 2015
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