Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1723
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1723 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1723
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0120 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO/NWRN-WRN AR/NERN-ERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 171820Z - 172015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE WRN FLANK OF THE
   ONGOING SRN MO CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
   STORMS TENDING TO DEVELOP/MOVE SWD WITH TIME INTO NWRN-WRN AR AND
   NERN-ERN OK.  A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS.  WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND ANY NEED FOR A
   SLIGHT RISK AREA AND A WW.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN EARLY AFTERNOON MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A
   FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS/STORMS FORMING ALONG THE WRN FLANK OF THE SWD
   MOVING SRN MO CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.  THE MOST RECENT STORMS IN
   LAWRENCE TO CHRISTIAN COUNTIES MO HAVE SHOWN HAIL DIAMETER OF 1-2
   INCHES PER WDSS-II MESH DATA...WITH THIS ACTIVITY TENDING TO FORM
   ALONG S/SWWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO A STRONGLY DESTABILIZING
   ENVIRONMENT.  MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWED A SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW IN SERN KS
   WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SSEWD INTO SWRN MO AND THEN SWD NEAR THE
   AR/OK BORDER.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE INFLOW AIR MASS FOR
   NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AND SWD FROM SWRN MO HAS MLCAPE OF
   1500-3000 J/KG.  THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT
   SUGGESTS SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS.  MEANWHILE...LARGE DCAPE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
   SUGGESTS ANY COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
   STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL AS THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SWD PER MOST
   CAM FORECASTS.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 09/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   37389423 37239371 36889266 36259224 35109263 34609399
               34769478 35029522 37029463 37389423 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: September 17, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities